Trump abandoned by Republicans in swing state of Carefree, Arizona

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Carefree, Arizona: You can find them in the same place every day except Sunday, from eight to ten in the morning and from four to six in the afternoon. Two retirees sitting by the freeway clutching Biden Harris signs.

They’d spend even longer if they could. But here in the Sonoroan Desert, where 36-degree fall days are common, it’s too hot to do much without air conditioning at sunrise. Only the towering saguaro cacti that dominate the Arizona landscape – some of which are hundreds of years old – can stand it.

If you drive past Tom and Linda Rawles, it’s easy to assume they are hardcore Democrats. Drop by to chat, and you’ll discover they’re lifelong Republicans. 70-year-old Tom once worked as the chief of staff for a Republican congressman. Linda, 61, joined the party when she was 13 and later ran for Congress as a Republican. More than conservative, they identify as libertarian – a common feature in this part of the country where individual freedom is seen as sacrosanct.

“I think the government should stay out of your bedroom and your wallet,” explains Linda. Like many Arizonans, they have a gun on hand at home in case they need it. While we are talking, leather-clad bikers race down the autobahn at 120 kilometers per hour. Most don’t wear helmets; You are not required to do so under Arizona law.

Tom and Linda live in Carefree, a town of 3,000 on the outskirts of Phoenix, the largest city in the state. For fear of contracting the coronavirus, they have barely left home in the past seven months. Most days, this is as far as you dare: to the top of your driveway and back for a dose of political activism twice a day.

In 2016, the Rawlses disliked Donald Trump’s rhetoric against immigration and free trade. They couldn’t stand Hillary Clinton either and they voted for the Libertarian Party candidate. This time they are staunch Joe Biden supporters. For them, this is not a normal choice; They believe that a second Trump term poses an existential threat to American democracy.

“We think everything is at stake for our country,” says Linda. “The Republican Party has been taken over by a populist cult. We don’t agree on all points with Biden, but he’s a decent man. He’s not a psychopath. ”

Tom and Linda were appalled by Trump’s claim, after the deadly riots by the white supremacists in Charlottesville, that there were “good people” on both sides of the protests. They are alarmed that he insists that the elections are “rigged” and that if he loses, he may not accept the peaceful transfer of power. And they are appalled by his rejection of climate science and his efforts to downplay the seriousness of COVID-19.

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As they list their reasons for rejecting Trump, a white car pulls off the freeway. A woman gets out and introduces herself: Her name is also Linda, but she is a Trump supporter. She wants to know why this silver-haired couple on the street support Biden.

Sensing a potential convert, Linda Rawles says, “I promise we will fight with you to make sure Biden doesn’t go too far to the left. First we have to get rid of this madman. ”

After the conversation has started pleasantly, it quickly drains into the ground. Linda, the Trump supporter, fears that socialists will rule the country if Biden wins. Linda Rawles replies that Trump is a fascist who wants to turn America into a right-wing dictatorship.

Two women of the same age with the same name in the same town. But they might as well speak different languages. Linda, the Trump supporter, drives away without changing her mind. If anything, the encounter only confirmed suspicions that the opponents were not only wrong, but had nothing to do.

Two weeks before election day, carefree life feels anything but carefree.

“It pains me deeply what happened to our country,” says Linda Rawles. “It makes me sadder than I can express.”

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When Trump emerged as a political candidate, Robin Shaw was ready to give the billionaire businessman a chance. As a lifelong Republican, Shaw represented the party in Arizona state legislature in the 1990s. She then saw the dysfunctional Washington, DC politics as a financial services lobbyist up close. Despite having doubts, she voted for Trump in 2016.

“There was so much downtime that nothing was done,” she says. “And here came this outsider. I thought maybe he’s independent enough to drain the swamp like he promised. I thought, it’s been four years, how much damage can it do? ”

She stands in the driveway of her Scottsdale home and shakes her head in disbelief. The Trump experiment, she says, has turned out to be an epic failure: “Our country has hit rock bottom.”

She is particularly critical of Trump’s response to the coronavirus. In order for her to continue to care for her 95- and 99-year-old parents, Shaw has had to confiscate her home in Scottsdale, near Phoenix, since the pandemic began. Three close friends have died from the virus.

This time around, Shaw and his girlfriend and former Republican lawmaker Roberta Voss stand up for Biden. Both are involved in the Lincoln Project, a group of anti-Trump Conservatives, and display Arizona Republicans for Biden signs on their lawns.

“The Republican Party no longer exists,” says Voss. “Trumpism has replaced conservatism.”

Shaw sums up the past four years as “agonizing”. She has broken off contact with conservative friends and family members to avoid nasty arguments about politics.

“I hope it’s not permanent, but I can’t speak to them right now,” she says. “There is so much argument, there is so much division. It is exhausting. Everyone I speak to is fed up. ”

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For the past 70 years, Arizona’s arid plains have been some of the most dependable Republican areas in the country. Only one Democratic presidential candidate has won Grand Canyon State since 1952: Bill Clinton in 1996. Eight years ago Mitt Romney knocked Barack Obama down in Arizona by 12 percentage points.

These times are over now. Trump carried the state by just under 3.5 percentage points in 2016 and in 2018 the Arizonians sent their first Democrat to the US Senate in 30 years. This year Arizona is one of the most competitive states on the voting map. Biden leads Trump by 3 points RealClearPolitics Average, which gives wings to democratic hopes for an historic victory here.

“I know we will win Arizona,” said Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager, at an event last week.

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One important reason is the change in demographics. Despite its borderline mythology, the state is heavily urbanized: half of the state’s voters live in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and surrounding towns like Carefree. There is a growing number of Hispanic and college educated voters, as well as an influx of migrants from leftist states. Even so, the Democrats of both Republicans and registered independents in Arizona are still outnumbered.

Samara Klar, a political scientist at the University of Arizona, says the ideological disposition of the state’s voters is crucial. “The Arizonians are pretty temperate and they pride themselves on that,” she says. “You see yourself as really independent.”

That mentality was embodied by John McCain, the late Republican Senator who described himself as an outsider. McCain took pride in working with Democrats on legislation and defying his party’s orthodoxy. McCain’s widow, Cindy, has endorsed Biden and appears in his campaign ads in Arizona.

“The fact that Biden is a pretty centrist candidate for the most part really helps him in a state like Arizona,” says Klar. This is not a state that will elect a very liberal Democrat. ”

Immigration lawyer Yasser Sanchez agrees. The Mexican-born father of five is an active member of his local Mormon Church. On his bookshelves are books by Fox News figures and conservative politicians. After fighting for Republican candidates since college, Sanchez quit the party in frustration last year for approving Trump.

“Everything about him is a scam,” says Sanchez as he serves shrimp ceviche lunch in his two-story home in Gilbert, a town near Phoenix. “He doesn’t care about science, doesn’t care about facts, doesn’t care about people.”

After writing on behalf of an independent candidate in 2016, he’s campaigning for Biden this year.

“It would have been very difficult for me to promote Bernie Sanders – I’m moderate,” he says.

“It’s very easy with Joe Biden. He’s the only sensible choice for the president. ”

Sanchez says a close win for either candidate in Arizona won’t come as a surprise. Trump remains hugely popular in rural areas and has held five rallies across the state this year to raise voter turnout from his conservative base.

“They’re scared of losing Arizona,” said Sanchez of his friends in the Republican Party. “If you lose Arizona, you lose the election.”