With 16 days left of the election campaign, Joe Biden still stands against an increasingly active president. The national lead is now at 8.2 percentage points, against 7.8 points on the previous TV 2 average.
It is number cruncher Terje Sørensen who calculates TV 2’s weighted average based on the latest measurements from the USA.
– Biden’s management is solid. His problem is that many of the voters do not vote for Biden, but against Trump. Therefore, he is vulnerable to any negative news in recent weeks, says Sørensen.
– Do not forget that it was at this time four years ago that Trump seriously began to close the gap to Clinton.
– The next week will be exciting. If Biden leads by 8 points next week, it’s probably over.
Just like on Thursday, Sørensen’s model Biden gives a somewhat smaller lead than the most well-known models in the USA. Why?
– Our model only contains measurements for the last six days, Terje explains. He is skeptical of models that include older measurements so close to the election.
The position of electors
It is not necessarily the one who gets the most votes nationally who becomes president of the United States. The country’s indirect electoral system is about gathering the most voters and the first candidate for 270 winners. According to TV 2’s forecast, Biden is still leading solidly, with 333 against 205 voters.
To win, Trump must oust Biden 65 more voters. He must do so in the smoothest lash states. In what we have called the “second line of defense,” Trump is in a position to steal North Carolina back from Biden. In that case, he will secure 15 of the 65 voters he needs.
In the “first line of defense”, the states where Trump won by the least margin in 2016, it is further ahead. But if we imagine that the incumbent president is starting to supply himself from behind the list, he will, with Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin, secure exactly 270 voters.
Something’s happening in Michigan
Joe Biden has long led by a clear margin in Michigan. He is still clearly ahead of Trump, but in the last couple of days, polls have moved relatively sharply towards the president.
The political situation in the state is charged after the FBI revealed assassination plans against the democratic governor Gretchen Withmer. As recently as Saturday night, Trump supporters shouted “lock her up” with a clear address to Withmer, who has been accused of being too hard on the hand during the shutdown of the state this spring.
– At the same time, Joe Biden has taken a hard line against the state’s Republican senate candidate John James and called him “a disaster”, Terje Sørensen explains.
– It is not certain that it was so wise.
Challenger James is just behind the Democrats’ candidate and Sørensen believes the numbers are spreading to the presidential polls.
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