What if everyone is wrong?

Hispanic support for Democratic candidate Joe Biden is also lagging, particularly in Florida and Arizona as Trump profoundly contradicts dictators in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

After all, even though Kamala Harris is on the Biden ticket as a vice-presidential candidate, support for the Democrats by black women fell five points below Hillary Clinton’s margins four years ago.

So if Biden’s blue wave doesn’t show up in the key swing states, he’ll likely still beat Trump by 5 million votes nationally – and lose in the electoral college, just like Hillary Clinton.

What happens next if Trump wins? He has not outlined an agenda for the second term. Every time Trump has been asked about it, he has declined, apart from promising a vaccine that will end the pandemic and saying that 2021 will be the biggest year of economic growth in history.

We know that Trump is not magnanimous in victory. Everyone should be prepared for a replay of what happened after Trump won the impeachment battle. There was no reconciliation then. Trump stepped in and punished everyone he blamed for the witch hunt. He had them removed by the government. He had the attorney general open an investigation by investigators into Trump’s behavior in order to rewrite the narrative that all of his torment was due to a conspiracy by Obama-Biden to spy on his 2016 campaign in a treacherous coup attempt.

Trump never let go of his anger and anger. He’s ordered his secretary of state to release more damn emails from Hillary Clinton. Speaking of his attorney general on Obama and Biden, he said, “If Bill Barr doesn’t charge these people with crimes, the greatest political crime in our country’s history, we will be little satisfied if I win … because I will remember it . ”

The half-lives of these and other officials will be shorter than ever. There will be even fewer senior Trump advisors who can say, “Mr. President, you cannot.”

Trump’s # 1 enemy is now China. For Trump, it is China that inflicted the “plague” on America that threatened his presidency. And he will take revenge. The virus, said Trump Washington Post Journalist Bob Woodward said, “I got away from them and him [President Xi] didn’t want to keep it away from the rest of the world because it would have severely disadvantaged it. Woodward was shocked that “Trump would believe President Xi deliberately spread the virus” in an attempt to give China a competitive advantage in a COVID-hit world.

If China Trump gets justice for this alleged crime – including decoupling the American economy from China – Australia will be caught right in the middle. Trump wants his allies to be all-in for the hotter Cold War with China.

So how can we tell what will happen if we watch the return on the night of the elections in real time? The two most important states this year are Florida and Pennsylvania. A win in one will be decisive for Biden; conclusive in both. If Biden is ahead in live counting that night in either or both of those states – and other states Trump won in 2016, such as North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia – victory is imminent.

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The most important thing is where the count is at night, with the votes from the early and election day votes. Democrats will have a higher percentage of postal votes than Republicans. For Australian viewers, the postal vote count can be seen as an imitation of what we have here in the distribution of preferences: they round off the primary voting that we see on our screens.

Conversely, if Trump is ahead, there will be a hell of a battle over the legitimacy of postal votes and their counting – a controversial election that takes place in court, in state legislatures and in Congress, and threatens a peaceful transfer of power. The election, which will take place in Sydney on November 4th, will be one of the tense election clocks in history. Nothing is certain until it happens.