Election: Northern Cyprus: the outgoing favorite against the Ankara candidate

The leader of North Cyprus Mustafa Akinci leaves favorite Sunday to win a new mandate at the head of this self-proclaimed Republic against Ankara protege Ersin Tatar, a second round in the shadow of tensions in the eastern Mediterranean.

Outgoing “President” of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognized only by Turkey, Mustafa Akinci came in second in the first round with nearly 30% of the vote, behind Ersin Tatar (over 32%). But he should, except surprise, win against the outgoing “Prime Minister” thanks to the support of Tufan Erhurman, who came third last Sunday.

The election comes against a backdrop of strong tensions around the exploitation of hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean between Ankara and Athens, the Republic of Cyprus’s main ally – the only one recognized by the international community and a member of the European Union since 2004 – which exercises its authority over the southern two-thirds of the divided island.

After drilling off North Cyprus, it was the return this week of a Turkish exploration vessel to waters claimed by Greece that sparked discord and led to a condemnation by EU leaders on Friday “provocations” from Turkey, threatened with European sanctions.

Having long worked for rapprochement with the Greek Cypriots, Mustafa Akinci maintains stormy relations with the President of Turkey, tutelary power, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This 72-year-old independent social democrat, who defends the reunification of Cyprus in the form of a federal state, has never hidden his intention to loosen ties with Ankara. 60-year-old nationalist Ersin Tatar defends a two-state solution.

Seeing Cyprus as a major piece in its strategy to defend its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, Ankara is closely following the ballot in the northern third of the island and has stepped up maneuvers to give Ersin Tatar’s campaign a boost.

Ceremony with great fanfare to inaugurate an underwater aqueduct between North Cyprus and Turkey or the partial reopening of a former renowned seaside resort, abandoned since its closure by the Turkish army after the partition of the island, have sparked accusations of Turkish interference in the election and angered many Turkish-Cypriots. “You have neither the right nor the power to dictate who will be the president,” Mustafa Akinci railed against Ankara on the evening of the first round.

“Turkish Cypriots are not happy to be seen as dependent on another and to be endlessly reprimanded and despised,” said Umut Bozkurt, a political scientist at the University of the Eastern Mediterranean in Northern Cyprus. According to the researcher, Ankara’s alleged interference turned the ballot into a referendum on their “dignity” for many Turkish Cypriots.

“Peace, because we no longer want to be puppets in our country,” said Ahmet, a Turkish-Cypriot, on Twitter, using the hashtag “Peace, because”, which has gone viral in recent days. “The results of the first round show that a considerable part of the voters want to free themselves from the influence of Turkey and wish to live in a reunified Cyprus”, according to Umut Bozkurt.

But displaying an independent line vis-à-vis Ankara is not easy as the TRNC has been under the political and economic influence of Turkey since its creation in 1983. The economic crisis, amplified by the Covid-19 pandemic , did not fix anything and it is Ankara which financed the construction of a hospital of a hundred beds in TRNC to face it. Cyprus gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1960, but Turkish troops invaded the northern third of the island in 1974 in reaction to a coup attempt to reunite the island with Greece.

When he came to power in 2015, Mustafa Akinci revived hope that the peace talks would be successful by advocating a federalist solution that he still supports, but the last official negotiations failed in 2017. “Difficulties await him in this subject if he is elected, ”anticipates Umut Bozkurt. “Ankara now seems to prefer a hard line that excludes a federation in Cyprus.”