Why has the Nagorno Karabakh conflict turned into a nightmare for...

Why has the Nagorno Karabakh conflict turned into a nightmare for...
Why has the Nagorno Karabakh conflict turned into a nightmare for...
The American magazine “Foreign Policy” said that the war is taking place in a region Nagorno Karabakh Between Armenia and Azerbaijan came at a very bad time for Iran.

She added, in a report published on her website, on Wednesday evening: “At home, Iran faces a very difficult economic situation as a result of the US sanctions, and abroad it is involved in many endless geopolitical adventures in the Arab world, from Iraq to Syria and other regions, These are the conflicts in which I have invested heavily in recent years.

Declining Iranian influence in the conflict

Foreign Policy went on to say, “However, Iran appears to have also been involved in the South Caucasus conflict, where it previously played a mediating role, but now it appears that its influence is much less than its geographical proximity to the two sides of the conflict, and worse, Iran is no longer It enjoys the diplomatic independence it did in the 1990s, when fighting first broke out between Armenia andAzerbaijan On the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region, as the Iranians’ influence on both sides was much greater than it is now.

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And the magazine continued: “Now, Iran must be in the back seat behind Russia, Turkey and the West, and in light of the large Azerbaijani minority in Iran, which numbers 20 million people, there is a strong possibility that the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan will spread to Iran, and that it is a serious threat. On Iranian internal security, Tehran does not want to lose this conflict, but its hand is tied and weak. ”

And she said: “After the outbreak of hostilities between Armenia, which is predominantly Christian, and Azerbaijan, which has a Shiite majority, on September 27, it took Iran 3 days to understand that the current clashes are more and more violent and completely different from previous skirmishes, despite the signing of a ceasefire agreement after the war that It lasted from the year 1988 to 1994, and the two neighboring countries exchanged clashes during the following years, most recently last summer.

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Iranian data denies helping Armenia

Foreign Policy pointed out that “Iran, after 4 days of fighting between the two parties, suddenly changed its diplomatic tone, by emphasizing neutrality and willingness to mediate between the two countries, to standing next to the Azerbaijanis. On October 1, political representatives of the Supreme Leader issued The Iranian Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has a joint statement in support of Azerbaijan, and the statement affirmed that there is no doubt that the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region belongs to Azerbaijan. ”

According to the magazine, “At the time this statement was issued, reports spread that Iran had opened its airspace to Russian military supplies destined for Armenia, which led to the outbreak of demonstrations not only in the Iranian region bordering East Azerbaijan, but also in Tehran, where chants rose: Karbach is for us, and it will remain for us. ”

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The American magazine said: “The mere possibility of Iran being a channel for Russian weapons destined for Armenia was like explosive news, which Iran quickly denied .. and this is exactly what happened, as Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif, and Ali Akbar issued Velayati, the most prominent advisor in the foreign policy of the Iranian guide, made statements in which they emphasized that Armenia should withdraw from the Azerbaijani lands it occupied in 1994.″

As for the most reckless statement, it was made by Hossein Nouri Hamdani, one of the prominent mullahs loyal to the Iranian ruling regime, in which he said that Nagorny Karabakh is part of the Islamic world and must return to the Islamic State and be liberated.

The reasons for Iran’s abandonment of neutrality

Foreign Policy pointed out that there are several factors that caused the Iranian position to shift in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, including its foreign relations with the two parties to the conflict, and the parties that also involved themselves in the same border conflict between the two former Soviet republics.

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She said, “While Iran has had good relations with Armenia since its independence in 1991, its relations have expanded significantly with Azerbaijan in recent years, as the volume of trade and tourism, mutual military cooperation between the two countries, as well as Iranian arms exports to Baku have increased.”

The magazine confirmed that Turkey is strongly involved in Iranian calculations in dealing with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, although Tehran accused Ankara of working to fuel the conflict by demanding that Azerbaijan take action first to try to regain the occupied territories and impose a fait accompli, before agreeing to a ceasefire and starting diplomatic talks.

With the continued presence of Iran and Turkey on the opposite sides in Syria, where Ankara supports the rebels, and Tehran stands with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran does not want to escalate tensions with Turkey regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to Foreign Policy.

Fear of escalating tensions with Turkey

Foreign Policy believes that there are two main issues that dominate Iranian thinking in this regard. The first is the ability of Turkey, which many Iranian commentators see as intent on establishing its guardianship over all Turkish peoples, to respond easily to Iran, as Ankara can seek to Inciting large pockets of the ethnic Turkish population in Iran against the policies of the ruling regime there.

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As for the second: despite the deep suspicions that dominate the relations between the two countries, Iran sees Turkey as an important neighbor and a vital trading partner, and as a result of Iran’s isolation, it does not want Ankara to join Tehran’s long list of opponents.

Desire for an immediate halt to the fighting

The American magazine said that whatever cards Iran has in the recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, the clear fact is that Tehran is currently in a much weaker position to control matters, compared to its influence during the 1990s.

She indicated that no one now sees Iran’s mediation as a vital part of the conflict, because Tehran is in an ongoing confrontation between it and Washington and is preoccupied with conflicts in the Arab world.

Foreign Policy concluded its report by saying: “Iran is beholden to Russia, and is afraid of escalating tensions with Turkey in the South Caucasus, and while it is sitting and watching anxiously two of the international powers that are leading the conflict in Nagorny Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it wants to witness A quick cease-fire, as prolonging the battles could lead to a new regional war, the consequences of which could not be sustained.

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