Bloomberg: With his support from Azerbaijan … Erdogan exposes his relationship...

“If Vladimir Putin has clarified something over the years, it is that no power, not the United States, the European Union, or even China, is allowed to interfere in the security affairs of a former Soviet state,” he said.

He added, “However, it seems that Erdogan did not understand the message. By strengthening his support for Azerbaijan in its attempt to regain lands it lost to the Armenian forces in 1994, he is putting his relationship with Russia to the test.”

According to Bloomberg, Erdogan’s approach enjoys wide support at home, and it may have resolved the stalemate that has been going on for nearly 30 years, and it could also win him a role in the settlement, but its persistence may be followed by a response from a military force capable of striking Turkish interests in many theaters. .

“Erdogan is testing Putin’s patience … He is bothering Putin more and more,” said Alexander Dinkin, an adviser to the Kremlin and head of the Institute for Global Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Bloomberg noted that “the relationship between the two sides witnessed tensions even before the outbreak of the recent fighting over the Nagorno Karabakh region on September 27th, despite views in the West that Turkey had abandoned the United States and its allies in NATO in favor of the partnership.” With Moscow. ”

“If it is confirmed that there is direct participation from the Turkish army or Syrian militants, this will be a red line … and this is not the multipolarity that Putin wanted,” Dinkin adds.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stressed that his country is ready to do more if Azerbaijan requests. The two countries held large-scale military exercises that ended last August.

As for Russia, it has a security treaty with Armenia, and it sells arms to both sides. The Kremlin announced that at least two talks had taken place between Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, since September 27, and in return it did not contact Erdogan or Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe Center, points out that Erdogan’s goal in Azerbaijan is to marginalize the “Minsk Group” (a subsidiary of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and reserve a seat for Ankara at a new negotiating table when the time comes to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

This is the same influence-building strategy that Erdogan used, and it has had some success in Libya, Syria and the eastern Mediterranean.

However, it also carries risks, because Putin can respond to Turkey in any of these theaters, if matters on the ground go further than he is prepared to accept.