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As sleep has become dear these days, until my friend’s grief subsides, I woke up three oclock in the morning of Wednesday to watch the Trump / Biden debate, so I wrote the article before Trump contracted the virus. I was afraid, like many, that Trump would eliminate Biden with a knockout and vanquish him in front of everyone, as he was an old man who did not focus and forget everything and did not fit a president. This did not happen, but on the contrary, Trump appeared with the appearance of the failed bully who went out of the rules, and the regulator had to stop him several times and Biden told him that he is a liar and deceitful and does not fit a president. These are unprecedented events in the history of America.
Historically, presidential debates have not changed the outcome of expectations, nor the results of the elections. Therefore, after what happened the next two debates will not have an impact on the course of the elections. The upcoming debates will be about foreign policy that has never affected the vote.
My friends in America are divided, Boutros Rizk from Alabama is a strong supporter of Trump. Dia Dafshi from Texas is a Republican and Trump will be grudgingly elected, he does not like him. Nadia Nashed and Mahmoud El-Shazly from Connecticut hate Trump and they will elect Biden, over a reluctant successor from Texas, Reza Athanasius and his family from San Francisco, Fouad Starr and his family from New York are Democrats to the core, and against Trump strongly, as well as Tariq Saadawi and Mustafa al-Khashab from New Jersey and Fikri Andrews from Hawaii. Everyone is dear friends, and the intellectual and political disagreement does not spoil friendliness.
I know that there are those who expect Trump to succeed, contrary to measurements of public opinion, as happened with Hillary Clinton, but I say that unless a major American or global event occurs during the next month, Trump will not win, but rather I expect him a heavy loss, and my reasons and results are:
The winning of the majority of the votes was identical to the electoral votes in all the presidential elections except twice, on the day Bush Jr. beat Al Gore and Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton, two rare incidents, so whoever wins the majority of votes wins in most elections .
Everyone agrees, Republicans before Democrats, on the impossibility of Trump getting more popular votes than Biden, but the Republicans hope to achieve a number that exceeds the Democrats in the state vote, as happened with Hillary. That will not happen because the differences in opinion polls were from 2% to 5% in swing states in favor of Hillary, while this time the ratio is 5 to 9% in favor of Biden. The number of swing states was 5 states, now the number has increased to 9 and perhaps 11 as states that were voting for Republicans transformed into swing states. Then Hillary was hated, arrogant, stubborn, and heavy on the hearts of many, and refused to visit important swing states. The increased confidence of the Democrats led to the failure of large numbers of their supporters, especially blacks and some minorities not interested in the performance of their franchise, and finally Trump was a promising new face that enticed many swing votes to vote for him. Now there is a powerful organization to urge Democrats to vote, Trump’s performance during the covid epidemic has been disastrous. The amount of books and information that was leaked and written about his performance from his Republican aides, distinguished journalists, and his family was disastrous, and he lost the confidence of many swing voices in him. My estimate is that he will lose the five swing states that he won against Hillary, in addition to two or three states that most voted for the Republicans, which means a landslide victory for Biden.
Biden is 77 years old and neither charisma nor a brilliant speaker, and his victory will be because the American people for the most part do not want Trump. Some for his poor performance, some for moral reasons, and some for lack of confidence in what he tells his constant lie, and some want him because he believes he is the most capable of managing the economy.
In conjunction with the presidential elections, the Democrats are expected to easily win the majority in the House of Representatives. There is a limited possibility of winning a majority in the Senate.
What happens when Biden wins? Within America, the Obama Health Insurance Act will be entrenched, taxes will be raised on the big rich, blacks and immigrants will be more protected, and they will try to expand the Supreme Constitutional Court by adding two new members. He will find it difficult to improve the economy due to the effects of the Corona. The regime will change from an individual system with few aides who were rapidly changing the Trump system, to a return to a greater role for the State Department and the Pentagon.
As for foreign policy, unity will return to NATO, and as Biden announced that England should implement the Brexit agreement that it signed after Johnson tried to evade the part of Ireland, otherwise he would not sign a trade agreement with it. US-French-German relations would improve and put more pressure on Russia. Some former Eastern European countries, such as Hungary, will be pressured to adjust course in a more democratic direction. Relations with China will improve and a new agreement will be signed with it. America will return to the Paris Agreement on Climate and Environment, UNESCO and the World Health Organization, and the previous agreement with Iran will be activated and amended, which is what England, France and Germany want. Support for Israel will continue, but without significant new moves. Erdogan will lose his most important friend and supporter of his policies, whom Trump considered, in John Bolton’s words, to be the distinguished man for dirty missions. Non-intense pressure will be put on the countries of the Far East, the Middle East and all non-democratic countries in the world to observe human rights, and the relationship between America and the Gulf countries will be modified to become institutional relations instead of the personal relationships of Trump and his son-in-law. Trump will fail to disrupt the election result and submit to the fund, and he will make some stubborn decisions between the announcement of the result and the handover of power in January, and Trump will become an amazing and strange part of American history.
These are my expectations for the American elections, but our beloved Egypt is the most important.
Oh Egyptian, Egypt always call you
- The situation in Egypt
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