From the Caucasus to Syria and Libya … minefields threaten to...

He added in a report published on Sunday: “Journalists, analysts and bloggers like to compare Turkish President Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, and rightly so, there are clear similarities between them. Erdogan, like Putin, is not fond of Western liberal principles, and both violate traditional values ​​and call for the revival of religion.” .

The site indicated that Erdogan and Putin “do not care about international criticism, and do not hesitate to challenge the voices that attack them abroad, and when necessary, they move strongly against international trends and behavior.”

He went on to say: “Despite the many similarities between Erdogan and Putin, Turkish-Russian relations are fragile and unstable at all, and the two countries can be allies and competitors at the same time, and there is a state of mistrust between Erdogan and Putin.”

The report emphasized that “the fragility of Turkish-Russian relations was revealed by the past five years, especially after the downing of the Russian Sukhoi 24 aircraft on the Turkish-Syrian border.”

He added, “At some point, it seemed that the two countries were close to entering a war, and it took nearly 6 months for things to calm down, and the same thing was repeated at the beginning of this year when Ankara accused Moscow of direct involvement in the killing of dozens of Turkish soldiers in Idlib, Syria.”

He continued, “In both cases, the two parties found the common political will to prevent escalation and not cross the red line, so that matters would not get out of control and lead to undesirable consequences.”

The report warned that Russian-Turkish relations could deviate from their course at any time.

He said, “The current Turkish policy logic and mechanisms place Erdogan at the heart of the minefield, where any step could lead to the destruction of his relations with Putin. These mines are varied and different according to the way they are designed and concealed, but none of them could lead to an unintended escalation and permanent damage to relations. Russian-Turkish ”.

The report identified 7 files that could witness an escalation of tensions between Russia and Turkey:

1- Intervention in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict:

It was not surprising that Turkey strongly and clearly supported Azerbaijan for 3 decades in its conflict with Armenia, but the matter differs completely between political and diplomatic support for an ally in a frozen conflict, and the provision of large military aid at the height of hostilities.

This support dramatically changes the balance of power in the conflict and gives Azerbaijan a false hope that the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh can be resolved quickly through military means, which weakens the chances of reaching a peace agreement.

2- Escalation in Libya

Turkey is one of the most prominent foreign players in the Libyan civil war from the beginning, but if Turkey continues to internationalize the Libyan conflict by strengthening its military presence and supporting Fayez al-Sarraj’s forces in an attempt to achieve a decisive victory over its opponents in eastern and southern Libya, this will lead to serious problems, not With Russia only, but with a number of other influential countries in the Libyan file, including Egypt and France.

3- Taking care of the militant factions In Idlib:

Turkey’s obligations under the “Sochi” agreements on Idlib include the withdrawal of the Syrian factions and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the buffer zone.

Two years later, Ankara has not kept its promises, and hopes that Turkey could succeed in rehabilitating or at least curbing the militants in Idlib faded.

If these Turkish-backed militants use that land to launch operations against the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Russian military installations in the region, then a new crisis will flare up between Russia and Turkey.

4- Operations against the Kurds in northern Syria

Russia and Turkey have different tendencies against the Syrian Kurds, and the role that the Kurds will play in the country’s future, and so far, Ankara and Moscow have avoided raising problems in this file, through “agreement on disagreement.”

Nevertheless, Turkey has launched a large-scale military operation against the Kurds in northern Syria, which will push the Kurds towards forming an alliance with the Syrian government forces, something that Russia supports and even encourages, and could lead to a direct clash between Ankara and Moscow in northern Syria. It will have major negative consequences for their relationships.

5- Exacerbating the confrontation with Greece

Relations between Russia and Greece are somewhat turbulent at the moment, though, it is unlikely that Moscow will side with Ankara in the current regional dispute between Turkey and Greece.

In the current situation regarding the demarcation of economic zones in the Mediterranean, Turkey is not only against Greece but also against all Russias partners and friends in the eastern Mediterranean, and the “Greek issue”, which was exacerbated by Turkish activity, could lead to Moscow’s concern. , To a new crisis in Russian-Turkish relations.

6- Expanding military-technical cooperation with Ukraine

Russia and Turkey’s positions differ fundamentally on Ukraine and Crimea, especially since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014.

One way or another, Moscow had to understand the fact that Ankara could not recognize Russias control of Crimea, and the latter’s subordination to Moscow.

However, the continuing expansion of military and political cooperation between Ankara and Kiev, particularly the supply of advanced Turkish drones that Kiev could use in the east of the country, could be a “thorn in the side” of Moscow.

7- The fierce promotion of Turkish nationalism in Russia

The Turkish infiltration into the predominantly Muslim and Turkic-speaking areas in the North Caucasus and the “Volga” region is a source of great concern for the Russian leadership.

These concerns are exacerbated by the noticeable increase in the role that political Islam plays in the way Erdogan governs Turkey and determines his paths in foreign policy.

Many in Russia see that Turkey is gradually moving away from the secular principles laid down by Kemal Ataturk, which means that the promotion of Turkish unity will be intertwined with the promotion of political Islam, which will naturally be against Russian regional unity, and represents a direct threat to Russian national security.

The site concluded its report: “Whatever the situation, the stakes in the game of Russia and Turkey are very high, not only for Russia and Turkey, but also for a number of neighboring regions, as Moscow and Ankara often promote their opposing interests, especially in Central Asia and North Africa.” .