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Steps to solve the Libyan crisis are accelerating, as the conflicting parties sit at the negotiating table side by side, while experts believe that the time is right for reaching political, military and economic agreements, and forming a unified government between East and West.

Libyan political meetings are currently being held in the Moroccan town of Bouznika, and another in Geneva, while military talks are taking place in the Egyptian governorate of Hurghada between representatives of the Libyan National Army and representatives of the internationally recognized reconciliation government forces under the auspices of the United Nations.

Turkey and Qatar support the Government of National Accord in Tripoli.

3 tracks

“The military path, according to the leaks, will lead to the formation of committees that will select groups or teams from the army and the police, to establish the ceasefire and protect the government to be formed next October,” Libyan journalist Abdel Hakim Maatouk explained in his interview with Al-Hurra.

And he added, “As for the political track that meets in Bouznika in Morocco, it is between political parties in order to share sovereign positions, and there is a dialogue in Geneva that may include others under the supervision of the United Nations by involving minorities such as the Berbers in the political process, where their task is to choose the government.”

A conflict in Libya between the Government of National Accord and Haftar's forces
A conflict in Libya between the Government of National Accord and Haftar’s forces

As for the economic track, it is the meetings of the deputy chairman of the council, Ahmed Maitiq, with the Libyan National Army, which led to the resumption of oil exports, according to the Egyptian journalist, Abd al-Sattar Hatita.

Libya has been plunged into power struggles since the fall of the regime, Muammar Gaddafi, following a popular uprising in 2011. The internationally recognized Government of National Accord, backed by Turkey, is competing for power in this country, and a parallel authority in the east led by Haftar, who is supported by Russia, Egypt and the UAE.

International desire

Hatita confirms that there is a strong international desire currently to form a unified government between East and West, “but the dispute is over who will represent it, its headquarters and who will protect it,” noting that the Geneva meetings are not separate from the Bouznika or Hurghada meetings.

He clarifies that “all that is happening is attempts to heal the rift in Libya. The most important point in it from my point of view is that the opponents will sit back at the dialogue table directly, whether in Bouznika, Hurghada or Geneva.”

Military council

Hatita reveals that “the military representatives from both sides who meet in Hurghada are discussing the possibility of forming a military council that includes soldiers from the east and the west, in addition to forming a supreme security council that includes police forces from the east and west under one command that includes auxiliary services such as intelligence.”

He explained that there is a disagreement between the two sides, in the Hurghada meeting, on naming the mercenaries, “Some leaders in the West talk about the mercenaries sent by Turkey from Syria, and on the other side they talk about the mercenaries of the Russian Wagner Company and the Janjaweed from Sudan. There will be a lengthy dialogue about who the mercenaries are and how Dealing with them in the coming period. ”

He added, “I expect in successive consultations that they will submit to each other, and eventually succeed in disengaging from the mercenaries, but this matter may take from one to three months.”

Sanctions against Turkish, Jordanian, and Kazakh companies that have violated the arms sales embargo on Libya
Libyan gunmen are participating in the ongoing conflict in the country

A new presidential council

Hatita added, “The current discussions are touching on the restructuring of the Presidency Council. Instead of a president and eight deputies, it will consist of a president and two deputies according to specific geographical arrangements, representing the East, West and South.”

He added that “the prime minister for the first time will separate from the Presidency Council according to also geographical division representing the regions of Fezzan, Tripoli and Cyrenaica.”

The head of the internationally recognized Libyan Government of National Accord, Fayez al-Sarraj, announced last week his readiness to hand over power no later than the end of October, to clear the way for a new government emerging from the Libyan-Libyan talks aimed at finding a political solution to the crisis in the country.

He continues, “The crisis is that until we reach a presidential council, there must be cooperation between the executive and security institutions. Therefore, there has been a great momentum about re-exporting oil with a fair distribution of wealth without going to one party at the expense of another, as well as discussions about joint security institutions.”

Guarantees

A member of the Supreme Council of State in Libya, Abdul Qadir al-Hawili, said in his interview with Al-Hurra website that “there are no real and effective guarantees for the implementation of what will be agreed upon.”

Hatita points out that there are indeed fears of an attack by one side on the other again, especially because of the outlawed militias, “but at the same time there is a strong international desire to resolve the conflict.”

He adds that the United States is currently actively interfering in these discussions, in addition to the UN mission and regional countries such as Egypt and Morocco, as well as other countries that may interfere with guarantees for the two parties, such as France and Italy.

Part of the residential neighborhood of Bin Ghashir in the capital, Tripoli, which was bombed, causing civilian casualties
Part of the residential neighborhood of Bin Ghashir in the capital, Tripoli, which was bombed, causing civilian casualties

Will agreements be reached?

The Libyan journalist Abdel Hakim Maatouk believes that his country is “on the way to a political settlement with American intervention.”

Although Hatita believes that “talking about final agreements is premature because visions are still far apart”, there are indications of the success of these discussions in the end and the reaching of political, military and economic agreements.

Hatita attributed this to multiple reasons, the most important of which is that the military tensions between Egypt and Turkey have reached advanced stages, and “it is not in the interest of the United States to start a war between a NATO ally and a strategic security partner like Egypt, especially with the upcoming US elections.”

He added, “It is in the interest of the United States for security to stabilize in Libya and oil for export, because ’s success in the elections will lead to tightening sanctions on Iran, which means the necessity to provide alternatives such as Libyan oil to countries that were importing from Iran and whose contracts will expire, such as South Korea and Japan.” “.

He added that Europe fears that Russia will take advantage of the chaos in Libya, and set feet for it in the Mediterranean in front of European coasts, and therefore they will try to reach agreements to end the conflict.

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