Oil prices face 3 pressures .. the uncertainty of the global...

Oil analysts expected the continuation of crude oil price fluctuations this week, after it achieved the third weekly decline due to expectations of the US administration withdrawing from the strategic stockpile, and the rise of the dollar, in addition to the continued uncertainty regarding the recovery of global demand for crude oil and fuel.
They explained that the continued production restrictions by the “OPEC +” group reinforces expectations of a return to the rise in prices, especially with the increase in consumption in the winter season and the continuation of the repercussions of the global gas shortage crisis and the replacement of crude oil in electricity generation.
In this context, Ross Kennedy, managing director of QHE International Energy Services, says that “the state of uncertainty dominates the market in anticipation of the rapid withdrawal of the US strategic stockpile, which in turn led to the decline in crude oil futures contracts.”
He pointed out that the American economy is facing a state of consumer discontent after gasoline prices reached their highest level in seven years, which raised inflationary pressures, pointing out that the options are limited to confront the crisis and there is no consensus on it from all concerned parties, especially the decision to withdraw from the strategic oil reserve. Or even stop US crude oil exports.
For his part, Damir Tesperat, director of business development at the international company “Technic Group”, says, “Crude oil prices have made broad gains this year, with consumption rebounding from the impact of the epidemic, which helped achieve the fastest consumer price inflation in the United States in three decades.” Noting that rising fuel bills and energy costs – in general – increase inflationary pressures worldwide.
He suggested that the price gains of crude oil would return in the short term due to the scarcity of supplies and the fact that the increases provided by “OPEC +” or US producers and others are less than the pace of rapid demand recovery due to the reduction in fears of the epidemic despite the renewed injuries, noting that many investment banks It raised its forecast for the price of a barrel to more than $90 a barrel by the end of this year. An example of this is Societe Generale, which raised its forecast for crude oil prices for 2022 by ten dollars a barrel.
Peter Bacher, an economic analyst and specialist in energy legal affairs, adds that “some signs of weakness in the energy market began to appear remarkably after previous record gains last October,” explaining that refining margins for processing crude oil into fuel fell to the lowest level since late September. (September) at the end of last week.
He added that “the rise of the US dollar is putting strong pressure on crude oil prices, and as it is known, the strong dollar makes raw materials priced in the currency less attractive to buyers abroad,” noting that with the price of crude oil approaching its highest level in seven years at about $ 80 a barrel. Bets on higher prices in futures contracts have grown in recent months.
In turn, Arvi Nahar, a specialist in oil and gas affairs at African Leadership International, says, “OPEC + will most likely continue to maintain the program of gradual increases in its upcoming monthly meetings unless strong developments occur that require rapid intervention to remedy an imbalance in the market,” noting that in In light of the current situation of tight supply and the recovery of demand, we find that the JPMorgan Group expects that oil may rise to more than a hundred dollars in the short term.
On the other hand, with regard to prices at the end of last week, oil prices fell on Friday and erased the gains of the previous session due to fears that the Federal Reserve will accelerate plans to increase interest rates to curb inflation.
Brent crude futures fell 70 cents, equivalent to 0.8 percent, to $82.17 a barrel upon settlement, and US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 80 cents, equivalent to 1 percent, recording $80.79 a barrel upon settlement.
On Thursday, “OPEC” lowered its forecast for global demand for the fourth quarter by 330,000 barrels per day from last month’s expectations, as higher energy prices impeded the course of economic recovery processes from the pandemic.
“OPEC” and its allies led by Russia “OPEC +” agreed last week to stick to plans to gradually increase production by 400,000 barrels per day each month.
The two crudes witnessed a decline for the third week in a row, under pressure from the strength of the dollar, due to speculations that the administration of US President Joe Biden might release quantities of oil from the US strategic stockpile to calm prices.
On a weekly basis, the price of Brent crude fell 0.7 percent, while the US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6 percent.
Although there are positive indicators on the demand side, with a rapid recovery of air travel from the impact of the pandemic, the tightening of monetary policies and the winter that is about to dominate the northern half of the world will act as dampening factors.
On the other hand, the US drilling activity report for Baker Hughes for this week stated that drilling activity in the US continued to rise, with an increase of six rigs in the number of active drilling rigs this week.
The report indicated that the total number of rigs is now 556, a number that is 244 more than this time last year, however active rigs are still hundreds less than the 790 active rigs that were digging in the pre-Covid world.
The report stated that in the United States, the number of rigs rose this week to 454, an increase of four rigs from last week, and an increase of 218 rigs since this time last year, and the number of gas rigs increased by two rigs to 102, while the various rigs remained unchanged at zero.
The report indicated that the Energy Information Administration’s estimates of oil production in the United States for the week ending on November 5 remained stable at 11.5 million barrels per day, as oil production is still well below the record level of 13.1 million barrels per day recorded last year before the epidemic spread. in the United States.
He noted that the total number of Canadian rigs increased by eight, explaining that active oil and gas rigs in Canada now registered 168, an increase of 79 over last year.
The report pointed out that the number of rigs in the Permian basin increased by one digger this week, with the addition of 118 rigs since last year. The rig count in the nation’s second-largest basin, Eagle Ford, added one rig this week, while the total rig count in the Permian now stands at 272, with a total of 41 rigs at Eagle Ford.