Three sources in OPEC Plus said today, Monday, that it is likely that OPEC and its allies will stick to their current agreement to add 400,000 barrels per day of oil to the market in November, despite pressure from consumers to calm a market witnessing heavy demand for oil.
The ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, within the framework of the OPEC + group, are scheduled to meet later today. And before that, the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which monitors market developments, will meet.
The price of the benchmark Brent crude, which has risen 50% since the beginning of the year, exceeded the level of $ 80 last month and was trading near those high levels today at about $ 79, driven by disruptions on the supply side and increasing demand as the global economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The group agreed in July to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day each month until at least April 2022 to phase out cuts of 5.8 million barrels per day.
“The most reasonable thing is to add 400,000 barrels per day, no more,” one of the sources told Reuters in response to a question about what is expected to be decided by the ministers. Another source also said this was the most likely outcome, but did not rule out a possible increase.
OPEC+ sources said last week that producers were considering adding more than the deal implied, but none provided details of the additional amount or any suggested timing.
The last OPEC+ meeting decided the quantities for October.
Iraq’s Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar said on Sunday that oil prices at $100 a barrel would not be sustainable, and said OPEC wanted stable markets.
A senior aide to US President Joe Biden met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia last week to discuss the war in Yemen, but said oil was also a “concern”. India, another major oil consumer, has been pushing for an increase in supplies.
In a note published on Friday, analysts from JP Morgan said: “Given the decline in refinery operations and weak market indicators in China, we see no incentive for the OPEC + alliance to raise oil production beyond the 400,000 barrels per day currently committed.”
(Reuters)
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