The International Energy Agency charts a difficult path towards carbon neutrality

The International Energy Agency charts a difficult path towards carbon neutrality
The International Energy Agency charts a difficult path towards carbon neutrality

PARIS – AFP: The International Energy Agency calls for intensifying efforts to reach a sustainable reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (greenhouse gases) and outlines for the first time a scenario for achieving carbon neutrality, in its annual report issued on Tuesday.
And the Covid-19 epidemic has caused confusion in the energy world, as the agency expects in its latest estimates a decline in demand for energy sources by 5% this year, in contrast to a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions by 7% and investments in this sector by 18%.
According to estimates by agency experts, the oil and coal sectors will decline by 8% and 7%, respectively, while renewable energies will be in a better position.

Warning

But regardless of this crisis, the IAEA is calling for climate action.
Its chief executive, Fatih Birol, warned that “despite a record decline in global emissions this year, the world is far from making enough efforts to put it on a path of decisive decline.” “Only structural changes in our production and consumption patterns can stop the emissions trend permanently.”
As with every year, the agency’s reality check in more than 450 pages presents various scenarios for the future.
Neither the scenario based on current policies and commitments, nor that based on the assumption of a more delayed economic recovery, will not lead to a sustainable decline in emissions in excess of the projected rate for this year.
However, the agency decided to develop a new scenario under the heading of “net zero emissions”, which goes beyond the scenario known as “sustainable development” that it has defined.
A number of companies, countries and regions, led by the European Union, have set the goal of achieving carbon neutrality (i.e. reaching zero emissions) by mid-century in order to limit climate change.
It assumes reducing carbon dioxide emissions as much as possible, and compensating for the remaining emissions by various means to absorb this gas, such as increasing forest areas, means of carbon sequestration, and so on.
But this carbon-neutral scenario assumes a series of radical moves over the next ten years.
Reducing carbon emissions by only 40% requires, for example, raising the share of low-emission sources of electricity generation to about 75% of production compared to less than 40% now, and electric cars account for more than 50% of car sales in the world, compared to 2.5% now.
In its latest report, the International Energy Agency warned that “energy electrification, intensive energy efficiency improvements and behavioral change all play a role, as well as accelerating innovation in a wide range of technologies such as hydrogen production devices by electrolysis and (nuclear) reactors with small units.”
And she stressed that everyone must participate in this unprecedented effort, from governments, companies and financial sectors, but also ordinary citizens who must make critical choices about heating and travel, for example.
The agency, which advises developed countries on their energy policies, has long been criticized by environmentalists who are cautious about it and its lack of climate ambition, the role it gives to gas as a transitional energy, and the hope it holds on technologies such as carbon capture and storage.
Its latest report does not satisfy some environmental NGOs. Reclaim Finance and Oil Change International announced that “the International Energy Agency is halting in the middle of the road: net zero emissions is an incomplete scenario, limited to ten years, and still takes into account fossil energies (coal, oil and gas) by betting on publishing Uncertain technologies ».
Roman Yulan of Oil Change International said that this initiative is “a useful first step, but as long as the 1.5-degree target (as a ceiling for global warming) is not built into all of its tools and reports, the agency will continue to protect the interests of the fossil industry and it will be an obstacle to action.” For the climate ».
On the other hand, the International Energy Agency expects that the production of solar energy will lead to an increase in the supply of electricity from renewable sources in the next decade, as renewable energy is expected to account for 80 percent of the growth in electricity generation worldwide under the current circumstances.

‘Mature’ technology

In her main vision – which reflects the policy intentions and goals already announced – she said that renewable energy sources are expected to surpass coal as the primary means of producing electricity by 2025.
She added that the combined share of photovoltaic and wind-powered solar energy in global electricity generation will rise to nearly 30 percent in 2030 from eight percent in 2019, with solar PV capacity growing by an average of 12 percent annually.
“I expect solar energy to become the new king of the global electricity markets … Based on the current policy situation, it is on the right path to record new record levels annually after 2022 in terms of penetration,” said Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director.
The agency said that “mature” technology and support mechanisms have reduced financing costs for major solar photovoltaic projects, helping to lower overall production costs.
She noted that solar PV is now cheaper than new coal or gas-fired power plants in most countries. It added that generating electricity from renewable sources is the only major source of energy that will continue to grow in 2020.

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