The Journal of Glaciology indicates that researchers expect sea levels to rise by 30 centimeters by the end of this century.
Scientists from the universities of Hokkaido and Tokyo and the Japan Agency for Earth Science and Technology studied the long-term possibilities of melting the Antarctic ice sheet under global warming conditions.
This study was part of a large international initiative to compare the next generation of models, to assess the impact of global warming on the ice sheet in Antarctica and Greenland, which was launched as experts prepare the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) its sixth report on climate change.
The researchers used the SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLYthermal Ice Sheets) model. This international initiative includes 14 scenarios for continued warming and three scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In order to make this comparison between all these models, the researchers used standardized raw indicators across all of them, assuming that these indicators would not change after the year 2100.
From this comparison, it became clear to the researchers that the continuation of global warming will contribute to a sea level rise by 2100 by 30 centimeters, and by the third millennium it will reach 5.4 metres.
However, if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, these figures will be reduced to three centimeters and 0.32 metres, respectively.
Dr Christopher Chambers, from the Low Temperature Institute, said: “Our study clearly shows that the impact of climate change on Antarctic ice continues beyond the 21st century.
And that the most serious consequences will appear later and will be in the form of rising water levels in the global ocean.” According to the researchers, the main risk factor is the potential collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which rests on a base located well below sea level.
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