A professional’s betting strategies for The Valley, Randwick

A terribly difficult weekend to get into the early markets safely, with a possible thunderstorm predicted for Sydney and expected rain between 20 and 50mm in Melbourne.

As mentioned earlier, the best way to attack the rain hit meetings is to reduce the amount of my bank that I am willing to put at risk, especially on early bets.

Once I attend a meeting, I may want to attend with greater intent, especially if I feel like I’ve read a track bias before the market adjusted.




Kolding (left) walks up and down The Valley on Tuesday. Image: Getty Images

Really interesting edition of the Cox Plate with the four overseas runners taking around 30 percent of the market, led by Armory, who is currently synonymous with the second favorite.

Armory enters the race with slightly better ratings than Adelaide, who won the race in 2014 as a three-year-old in the northern hemisphere and as a four-year-old in Australia.

I can see that this was the mood of the team, as Brad Waters reported for Racenet on Wednesday.

Anyway, I can’t quite get the horse at market price and my $ 8.50 (100 percent) suggests there is no value.

As a reference, Adelaide started at $ 8, and this year the Australians were listed by Sacred Falls with a rating of 116, Fawkner 113 and Criterion 112.

This edition includes several runners with higher pre-race official handicap ratings.

Likewise, I can’t quite bring the other overseas runners to market, which makes me look back on the Australian runners.

The Russian Camelot clearly deserves a favor and I marked it around $ 4.40. My question about the horse is whether he is now looking more than 2000 m and whether he can achieve a good position outside the outer barrier.

Who still knows that it won’t be an advantage until then.

Shane O’Brien with Armory before his big mission at The Valley.

Arcadia Queen can win the race, I’m not that demeaning of her chances on a soft track as the bar plates were an additional variable two starts ago, but she would certainly have benefited from a fixed track.

Outside of that, I have Probabeel on the market, but marked as one that could improve its rating enough to win the race.

The biggest overlays on my market are for Kolding ($ 11) and Mugatoo ($ 15).

Kolding proved capable of a very strong 2000m in the Hill Stakes at the last start and has good numbers on wet tracks.

Mugatoo returns from winning the Newcastle Cup and finishes second in The Metropolitan.

Seems more suitable for 2000m, is very fit and will get a nice run which should be a strong pace.

I cannot look at grand slam as an opportunity to win.

Comparisons with the likes of Shamus Award and Castelvecchio show that in exposed form he is four to six lengths worse before the race.

He just has to take too big a step to win this race.



Prime Star is chasing another rich payday in the $ 1 million Bondi stakes.

That looks pretty thin, a shame when we talk about a $ 1 million cash race.

I focus on the top pair Peltzer and Prime Star as the main winning opportunities.

Acrophobic and Elizabeel are definitely competitors, but what they’ve shown so far seems like a step down.

Peltzer chased for the top of the three-year-olds ahead of his Group 2 victory in the Stan Fox Stakes, where he withheld the fast-ending Prime Star.

He drove there with very little pressure, which will not be the case in this race where I expect a strong pace with pressure exerted by both Elizabeel and Street Dancer.

Prime Star appears to have been hired for this race. They gave him a cold run on the last start, but there’s a great opportunity for him to get closer to the 1600m and that shouldn’t negatively affect his acceleration.

I have Prime Star ($ 2.50) and Peltzer ($ 2.80) and I’m not far from having both as overlays as I have the supremacy. I think they hold out over the field. But Prime Star is the bigger uptrend and overlay bet.

Early bets

Randwick (Race 6 No. 2 – Prime Star) Prize $ 3.60 – Stake 20 – Probability 2.5

The Valley (Race 9 No. 1 – Kolding) Prize $ 14 – Stake 8 – Probability 11

The Valley (Race 9 No. 5 – Mugatoo) Prize $ 23 – Stake 6 – Probability 15


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