A yellow Saudi signal for Hariri …

The countries of the region are preoccupied with mobile crises: the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Iraq clashes between the Americans – the “Popular Mobilization”. The sharp Turkish-European race after Ankara resumed sending vessels for gas exploration to the disputed waters between Turkey and Greece, in the light of possible clashes between Greek and Turkish Cyprus, in addition to wars Yemen and Libya, and the transnational political, military and security clashes that stem from the interests of the continents, in light of the entry of the United States of America at a critical time on the eve of holding presidential elections that will have repercussions worldwide. All are factors that distract the capitals from following up on the current Lebanese details.

Simultaneously, Lebanon enters the stage of technical negotiation on the demarcation of the southern borders, in light of political-economic-living-security disintegration. It turned out that the timing of entering the indirect negotiation space was determined by the American approval of Lebanon’s conditions that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri imposed in a framework agreement, after ten years of US-Israeli rejection. This confirms that the timing was American and not Lebanese. Had Washington wished earlier, it would have agreed to Beirut’s conditions in this regard.

But what about the timing of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s acceptance of the responsibility of forming a new government?

“Sheikh Saad” refused that responsibility during the current presidential era. It was said here that one of the reasons for this rejection was also due to the lack of blessing by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the presidency of a government that included “Hezbollah.” Note that Riyadh practiced a policy of complete neutrality, secretly and publicly, towards Lebanon in the past period, and still is. It threw the ball in the Lebanese court, but it aimed at “Hezbollah” in all its positions. In the past decades, the Lebanese did not see the aforementioned kingdom’s neutrality with regard to Lebanon, as it is doing now. Some describe this behavior as “negative neutrality.” Although the Turkish expansion competes with Saudi Arabia in Lebanon, it has become clear and is not limited to a single political environment, nor to a specific Lebanese region. At least, you can read the dimensions of the visits and the exchanges between MP Faisal Karami and the Turks, for example, that took place in the past few days. Visitors to Turkey repeat a saying: Istanbul has become a pilgrimage for Lebanese and Palestinian personalities.

If the scenario is correct about “Hariri’s unwillingness to take over as prime minister, because there is no Saudi signal,” then why has he accepted that responsibility now?

Insiders say that it was French President Emmanuel Macron who asked Hariri to take his steps towards the Serail, so Sheikh Saad decided to appear on television to promote his project and announce his “natural” candidacy for prime minister. The insiders themselves add that Macron obtained “a Saudi no objection to his presidency of the Council of Ministers of Lebanon now,” but that does not mean a green light in Riyadh for Hariri. Because the information says that “the kingdom’s position regarding the government will be determined based on its composition, and it does not want to include” Hezbollah “specifically. Based on that, it can be said that the Saudi red light has ended, only to be replaced by the yellow light.

Hence, Hariri seeks to form a non-political government, and puts all his efforts in this context, under the title “saving Lebanon economically.” But the goal is to banish the aforementioned party in order not to provoke the Saudis, and to turn the current yellow light into a green light for the upcoming government.

Will Hariri succeed?

The answer is determined by open political consultations that have yet to reach solutions.