South Korea vote: Who will lead Asia’s fourth-largest economy through Trump-era trade tensions?

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Supporters of South Korean presidential candidate, Kim Moon Soo of the People Power Party listen to him speaking during a campaign event for the forthcoming June 3 presidential election in Seoul May 19. — AFP pic

SEOUL, May 22 — Since US President Donald Trump began his second term, key Asian ally South Korea has not had an elected leader — meaning crucially, no one to bargain with Washington on tariffs.

With the country now set to vote in a presidential election on June 3, the new leader will need to juggle finding ways to stay out of Trump’s trade wars with keeping both Washington — Seoul’s main security partner against the nuclear-armed North — and neighbouring Beijing happy.

Who’s in the running?

There are two main contenders for the top job: front-runner ex-opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and conservative Kim Moon-soo.

Lee, a charismatic former child factory worker turned human rights lawyer, has been dubbed “South Korea’s Bernie Sanders” for his strong support of a basic income, advocating measures like direct cash payments to spur economic growth.

But he’s been dogged by a string of scandals, although a court recently delayed a retrial which could have derailed his bid for office.

Kim was once a labour and pro-democracy activist fighting military authoritarian regimes, but he shifted his views after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Kim is solidly in second, trailing Lee by 22 per cent, according to the most recent Gallup poll.

Economic priorities?

Both candidates have made the economy their top priority, but their approaches are sharply different.

Lee’s first pledge is to make South Korea “a global economic powerhouse” — and it seems, analysts say, he’s taking his left-wing party more to the centre.

Lee’s Democratic Party previously “emphasised labour rights and distribution, but now it is leaning toward economic growth,” said Kim Yong-jin, a professor at Sogang University.

Kim’s conservative People Power Party, on the other hand, tends to focus more on “corporate policies rather than the national policies,” he added, with their candidate emphasising his pro-business approach.

Branding himself as the “job president and economy president”, Kim has repeatedly emphasised that “the key to an economic overhaul is regulatory reform” — ironically for a former labour activist.

What about the US, China?

South Korea’s next leader will need to carefully balance its relationships with main security ally Washington and key trading partner and neighbour Beijing.

Front-runner Lee claims he’s not in a rush to strike a new tariff deal with the United States, saying he will be “prioritising national interests” above quickly sorting things out with the White House.

In contrast, Kim says the most important thing for export-focused South Korea is to maintain a good relationship with Trump.

“I have a very friendly and trusting relationship,” with the US leader, he said, vowing to “immediately” hold a summit if elected.

Lee has often been accused of being too China-friendly, saying in 2024 that Taiwan was “none of our business” — a message his opponent says is “alarming”.

But neither candidate is really bringing fresh ideas on balancing these key foreign policy ties, said Park Seung-chan, a professor of Chinese studies at Yongin University.

“Our past approach of simply siding with the stronger power is no longer viable,” he said.

What are the stakes?

Already hit by 25 per cent tariff on automobiles — a key export — South Korea is “highly sensitive” to tariffs, Park Sang-byung, a political commentator, told AFP.

South Korean officials are currently in Washington trying to negotiate a “trade package” aimed at preventing new levies, but progress has been slowed by the lack of an elected leader.

With export performance and economic growth rate “already facing significant concerns, if we do not actively respond to Trump’s tariff war, South Korea could find itself in a very difficult situation,” said Park.

Does it matter who wins?

At this point, anyone is better than no one, experts say.

Following ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol’s disastrous declaration of martial law and the impeachment, South Korea has cycled through two acting presidents, one of whom was the finance minister, and is now on its third.

“A country needs its CEO, the president, and right now South Korea is desperate,” Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University, told AFP.

“Typically, the president determines about 90 per cent of a country’s fate,” said Kim.

Until there is a new leader in place, all negotiations are at a halt, with vice trade minister Park Seung-taek saying it is “theoretically impossible” to sort things out until after the election.

Without a president — or even a finance minister — it is a “major crisis” for South Korea, “a situation where a lack of leadership is a serious problem,” Kim added. — AFP pic