Recovery, resignation, or death: Three scenarios faced by Pope Francis amid health woes

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - A woman prays during the rosary for the health of Pope Francis at St Peter's square in The Vatican, on February 26, 2025.— AFP pic

VATICAN CITY, Feb 27 — Pope Francis is in hospital with double pneumonia for 14 days — the longest hospitalisation in his papacy. The Vatican says his condition is slightly improving but doctors say his prognosis “remains reserved”.

Here are three possible scenarios:

Recovery

The 88-year-old pope, who suffers from a series of health woes but is known for his fighting spirit, appears to be on the mend — though doctors caution he is not “out of danger”.

The pope’s medical team has not yet commented on the length of his hospitalisation but other experts have suggested double pneumonia in someone that age could require a three-week stay at least.

The seriousness of his illness would in any case initially force workaholic Francis to slow down.

“It is hard to imagine Francis resuming his activities at the same pace after such an alarm,” said a Vatican source on condition of anonymity.

“There would inevitably be a transition period,” the source added.

In June 2023, after 10 days of hospitalisation for an abdominal operation, the pope took time to ease back into his schedule, but that was summer, a traditionally less busy period.

The main question is whether Francis would be able to maintain his short-term commitments, starting with the Easter celebrations in April.

2025 is a special Catholic year of festivities, called the Jubilee, and Francis is supposed to be presiding over many events in Rome.

There will also be a question mark over his ability to travel. Though Francis has no official international trips lined up, there is a possible visit to Turkey in May on the cards.

A nun prays at the statue of John Paul II outside the Gemelli hospital where the Pope is hospitalized for pneumonia in Rome, on February 26, 2025. — AFP pic

Death

Should Francis die, the Cardinal Camerlengo — currently Irish-American Bishop Kevin Farrell, will be responsible for managing the day-to-day affairs of the Church until the election of the new pontiff.

Farrell would not have papal powers, but could deal with administrative issues.

He would also convene the cardinals to decide when the pope’s body would be displayed in state, and when to hold the burial, which by tradition takes place between the fourth and sixth day after death.

The funeral, which Francis has insisted on simplifying, would take place in St Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican.

Francis has chosen to be buried in the Basilica of St. Mary Major in central Rome, not in the grottos of the Vatican like previous popes.

Cardinals would then gather in the Sistine Chapel to vote for a new pope in meetings called conclaves.

These would begin between 15 and 20 days after the pope’s death. There are currently 138 cardinal electors — cardinals aged under 80 who are eligible to vote.

Resignation

Speculation around a possible resignation has dogged Francis’s papacy but has intensified now and are expected to continue in the coming months.

“If the pope survives, many imagine that he will want to finish the Jubilee year, but that afterwards, when he is 89, he will face the question of whether or not to resign,” Italian Vatican expert Marco Politi told AFP.

Francis has called a “consistory”, or meeting of cardinals, for the proclamation of new saints — though has not yet set a date.

It was at just such a consistory that his predecessor Benedict XVI announced his shock resignation in 2013.

In recent years, the Argentinian has blown hot and cold on stepping down, saying it is a possibility but also warning papal resignations should not “become a fashion”.

And the fact that he is still working from the hospital seems to signal both his active presence as head of the world’s near 1.4 billion Catholics, and his desire to keep going. — AFP