Just before midnight (US East Time) on election night, Conservative news agency Fox News called the US state Arizona for presidential candidate Joe Biden.
News service three hours later Associated Press (AP) – which relies on the same data as Fox – did the same.
ABC News Australien Then he called Arizona for Biden, based on the projection from AP and Fox News.
But while Arizona’s count continues and the results tighten, no other major U.S. news agency has called the southwestern state for any of the candidates.
That includes CNN, ABC News USA, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reutersand other reputable networks.
All of this might make you wonder – did Biden win or not in Arizona?
Why Arizona is so important to the bottom line
Although Arizona has been in Republican hands for 20 years, who is elected president could make the difference this year.
Adding Arizona to a network’s list brings Biden to that 264 Electoral College votes – only six votes away of the 270 needed to secure the presidency.
That would mean if Biden won another smaller state – most likely worth Nevada six votes or Georgia worth it 16 – He would win instantly.
Networks that exclude Arizona from Biden’s record do not include that of the state 11 Votes, and therefore only have Biden on 253.
This means that the gain of a small additional state alone will not ensure it victory.
Without Arizona, Biden would have to catch up 17 more votes from a combination of Nevada (6), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15) and / or Alaska (3).
When Biden wins Pennsylvania, Arizona wouldn’t be a problem anymore – it is 20 Votes would get him well over the line.
Conversely, Donald Trump’s path to the presidency without Arizona is difficult – he would have to win almost every other state that is still on the board.
If he were to secure Arizona, he would jump up 225 Electoral college elects and has to win fewer indecisive states.
How Arizona looks now
While some like tight conditions Wisconsin and Pennsylvania leaned heavily on Trump before the margin narrowed in Biden’s favor, the opposite is the case in Arizona.
Arizona started out blue at the start of the count, but as the count continues Biden’s lead gradually diminishes.
His lead over Trump has decreased from 2.4 points today to 1.5 points, separating them by about 46,000 votes.
It remains to be seen whether the surge towards Trump is strong enough for the state to turn red.
Neither AP nor Fox withdrew their call despite alleged pressure from Trump himself.
Fox News Decision Desk Director Arnon Mischkin says Trump would have to win about 60 percent of the votes that weren’t counted by election night, which he didn’t think was possible.
“We’re not withdrawing this call,” said Mishkin.
„Maricopa County [a populous region in Arizona where votes are still being counted] is a county where Biden is fine.
“We don’t think this will change the tone or texture of the race. And we firmly believe that our reputation will last. “
What does Trump think of the reputation in Arizona?
Since election night, the Trump campaign has claimed the president can fill the gap.
According to Vanity Fair magazine, Trump called Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch on election night “to scream about this [Arizona] call and request a revocation “.
Murdoch refused, the magazine said. The New York Times reported that Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor Jared Kushner was also in contact with Murdoch.
However, the Washington Post later reported that Trump hadn’t complained to Murdoch.
“If he had, I wouldn’t have interfered or changed us [Arizona] Call “, wrote Murdoch in an email to the post office.
Why did ABC rate Arizona a Biden win?
ABC-Wahlanalyst Casey Briggs said the ABC had made a judgment based on calls from the AP and Fox News.
“They are both respected decision-making tables and networks that mentioned this on election night,” Briggs said.
“We took that call and left it on Joe Biden’s column.
“This is Donald Trump’s best bet to reverse a condition that is currently fictitiously blue, and if he can do that, his path will be a little easier.”
What if Biden hits 270, including the Arizona result?
With neither AP nor Fox withdrawn their call in Arizona, they will continue to use this projection to rate each candidate’s race to 270 electoral college votes.
When Biden hits 270, these networks will project him as the next president.
At the same time, both of them are closely monitoring the count in Arizona.
“The Associated Press continues to monitor and analyze the Arizona vote count results as they come in,” said Sally Buzbee, editor-in-chief of AP. “We will follow the facts in all cases.”
Networks have previously withdrawn calls – most notably during the 2000 election when CBS and CNN, followed by a number of other networks, named Florida for Al Gore – before everyone had to withdraw that projection.
There are times when Biden’s position in Arizona becomes untenable before calls are made to additional states and the call is withdrawn.
In that case, the race will get even closer and we could all add up the votes of the electoral college for a long time.
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