Wall Street futures swayed dramatically between gains and losses early Wednesday after President Trump said he won re-election over Joseph R. Biden Jr. despite several battlefield states not announcing any results and he would ask the Supreme Court into that Race to intervene.
The unexpectedly high poll results in the US presidential election rocked markets as global investors watched some who expected a one-sided victory turn into expanded nail bites with dwindling prospects for a quick fix. Mr Trump’s comments only added more uncertainty.
The futures, which fell after Mr. Trump’s remarks, rebounded somewhat, suggesting less than half a percent gain in the S&P 500 at the start of trading while the Dow Jones industrial average was poised for a slight decline.
The European markets opened around 1 percent lower and then regained some of their losses as traders bet on what may be a long wait for results.
Susannah Streeter, an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said investors would wait but Trump’s comments were a reminder that it could be a volatile trading session. Previously, the Asian markets were mixed after a turbulent ride.
One of the biggest swings was in US Treasury bond yields Indicator of the nervousness of investors. Yields fell as prices rose, indicating a greater desire to park money in a safe place.
Investors saw a clearer path on Tuesday as they anticipated a relatively quick win for Democratic candidate Biden. A strong victory for him and his party could set the stage for a large package of pandemic aid spending in Washington early next year. This could support the economy, boost consumer spending and cushion growth even if coronavirus cases pick up again. This would also mean large deficits in the short term and possibly drive up longer term interest rates.
But financial markets were shaken when traders and experts saw early returns that indicated a close result, increasing the possibility of President Trump’s re-election and keeping the Senate under Republican control. On the one hand, Mr Trump’s low taxes and restricted regulation have been popular with investors. On the other hand, it was clear to the analysts that a divided government could hurt the chances for a big spending package. Investors may also be concerned that belated vote counts could create a long period of uncertainty.
“You are not seeing as big a blue wave as was predicted earlier,” said Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, around 11 p.m. New York time.
In Japan, the Nikkei rose 1.7 percent while other markets in the region were less buoyant after a turbulent day of trading.
The 10-year government bond yield fell 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage points, to 0.79 percent. It’s the steepest one-day decline in yields since late March.
Among the unscientific indicators, two Chinese stocks traveled along with the polls based on their names. A company called Wisesoft, whose name sounds like “Uncle Trump wins wisely” in Chinese, rose more than 7 percent at one point on the Shenzhen stock exchange.
Another share from Shenzhen, Zhejiang Giuseppe garmentfell more than 1 percent earlier in the day. His name in Chinese sounds a bit like “Joe Biden” when spoken over a scratchy phone line.
Florida voters on Tuesday approved an election measure aimed at raising the state’s minimum wage to $ 15 by 2026.
Florida is the eighth state in the country to set a minimum wage of $ 15 according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, but the first to be promoted by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. The District of Columbia has also set a minimum wage of $ 15.
Florida’s measure, known as Amendment 2, was voted Tuesday in December and required at least 60 percent of the vote to pass. With 99 percent of the vote, the measure had a little more than 61 percent.
As part of the measure, the state minimum wage would increase from its current hourly rate of $ 8.56 to $ 10 in September, then increase by $ 1 each September through 2026. Thereafter, annual increases would be linked to inflation.
A study by the Florida Policy Institute, a think tank supporting the surge, found that the higher wages would benefit 2.5 million workers in the state directly.
A number of studies have shown that moderate increases in the minimum wage have not resulted in significant job losses. Economists warn, however, that the impact on employment will depend on the magnitude of the increase relative to a city or state’s wage scale.
This could make a $ 15 minimum wage more expensive in a state like Florida, where wages tend to be significantly lower than other states that have a $ 15 minimum wage.
California voters Tuesday approved Proposition 22, an electoral measure that allows gig economy companies like Uber and Lyft to continue treating drivers as independent contractors.
The vote opens the way for companies to reshape labor laws across the country.
Uber, Lyft, and delivery service DoorDash designed the measure to exempt companies from a state labor law that would have forced them to employ drivers and pay for health care, unemployment insurance, and other benefits. As a concession to the workers’ advocates, the initiative offers drivers a lower wage limit and limited benefits.
The Associated Press predicted early Wednesday that Prop. 22 would receive 58 percent of the vote. Proposition 22 encountered the strongest opposition in San Francisco, where Uber and Lyft are headquartered, with a deficit of more than 19 points. The working groups and state lawmakers are fighting startups that have spent $ 200 million in support of the measure.
With the gig work model cemented in California, Uber and other gig economy companies are expected to pursue federal laws that protect them from similar labor laws in other states.
“The past 14 months in California have been the most critical point on this issue,” said Bradley Tusk, a venture capitalist who advised Uber on policy issues in its early years.
However, your victory comes as lawmakers and federal officials increasingly seek to grapple with big technology. Members of Congress from both parties support crackdown on social media companies and the fight against Amazon and Google. Uber and his gig economy peers could get caught up in this anti-tech sentiment.
Between the Tuesday elections and Friday October’s employment report, the Federal Reserve will announce its November policy decision.
There is a good chance the central bank will stay low at Thursday’s session, both because of the gloomy economic outlook and because the Fed is politically independent and wants to avoid slipping into election history.
“I don’t think they want to get involved in anything political – nowhere near anything political,” said Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. While Chairman Jerome H. Powell is certain to encounter election-related questions at his webcast press conference, he is likely to dodge them.
“I’m sure he’s preparing in front of a mirror to answer some of these questions,” said Daco.
The Fed cut interest rates to near zero in March and bought around $ 120 billion worth of government bonds every month to calm markets and support demand. Officials are expected to discuss their future bond purchase plans at this meeting, but economists expect them to withhold key decisions as the path of the economy remains unsettled.
The manufacturing data has improved recently. Spending on goods has been strong and has been supported by savings held earlier in the year, even though expanded unemployment benefits have waned and small business loans have dried up. However, the situation could worsen as consumers exhaust their savings and coronavirus cases rise and the pace of employment gains is already slowing.
Economists in a Bloomberg poll estimate that employers likely brought back or hired 600,000 workers in October, a relatively small number compared to the millions of Americans still unemployed.
Fed officials have previously been given key positions by the White House Economic Advisory Council prior to their Friday morning release. However, the secure fax with these details was usually sent late Thursday afternoon, said someone familiar with the process. Officials won’t know the October numbers until their meeting.
Regardless of who is elected, the next president will face an economy that is still in turmoil after the shutdowns last spring. Some areas have recovered, others remain deeply depressed, and millions of Americans are still unemployed.
Proportion of adults aged 25 to 54 who worked in September. That’s up 69.7 percent in April, a 45-year low, but it’s still about as bad as the worst of the great recession.
Number of Americans in September who were unemployed for more than six months – what counts as long-term unemployment.
Number of Hispanic women who left the workforce since February. Service job losses and school closings have been particularly harsh for black and Hispanic women.
Change in gross domestic product from the end of 2019. GDP recovered from its slump in spring, but remains well below its pre-pandemic level.
Growth in consumer spending on goods from January to September. With nowhere to go during the pandemic, Americans are buying more than ever.
Decline in consumer spending on services from January to September. Hotels, restaurants, and movie theaters have reopened across the country, but sales are far from normal.
Annual sales rate of existing homes in September up 21 percent year over year. The real estate market has been fueled by extremely low interest rates and city dwellers looking for more space.
Change in production output since January. US factories have not been as badly hit by the crisis as many other sectors, but like the rest of the economy, they have made progress in recent months.
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