2020 US Election Guide: What Time Results Are Expected – And...

A record-breaking 98 million people voted ahead of Election Day on November 3, which means the 2020 presidential election, in which Joe Biden competes against Donald Trump, will be the first in history with more people voting before Election Day than on Election day.

This could lead to irregularities on election night: the results may come in faster than usual in some places, but immensely delayed in others.

A terrible new wave of coronavirus could also slow voting and counting down. And Trump has spent weeks pissing off supporters with false allegations of election fraud and election breakdown. Unpredictable actions by Trump or his deputies on election day could disrupt the process.

US election officials and media outlets that normally run races on election night say the chances are the election winner won’t be clear on Tuesday at midnight. That wouldn’t be unusual – three of the last five elections in 2000, 2004 and 2016 have risen after midnight.

On the flip side, we could have a result in the presidential race by the end of the night if one of the candidates takes decisive wins in key states. And the data from the high turnout could provide important insights into how the elections are developing.

Here’s a rough guide on how the night might go:

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18 o’clock ET (15 o’clock PT, 23 o’clock GMT, 10 o’clock AEDT)

The first surveys close in most cases Indiana and Kentucky (Both states span time zones). In Indiana, Vigo County, on the Illinois border, has voted with the winner of the presidential election every time since 1956. But don’t wait for Vigo: Indiana is known for fast cars but slow vote counting.

Kentucky is expected to give fans of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell the opportunity to toast his re-election. But if McConnell wins re-election, will he return as majority leader – or will the Democrats gain control of the Senate later that night? It’s the biggest prize in this post-White House election.

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19 o’clock ET (16 o’clock PT, midnight GMT, 11 o’clock AEDT)

It’s just going to be exciting. Most of the polls in the titanically important state of close at 7 p.m. Floridawhat votes counts fast – except when it doesn’t. Look for wonks (when results are in) (Here is a twitter list) to raise eyebrows clearly as to whether Trump will hit his 2016 margins in this or that county. This is when Election Night can really start to feel one way or another. So expect emotion.

And there will be so much to see. How is Republican Senator and Trump ally Lindsey Graham doing? South Carolina? Make the early return off Virginia look good for Trump? Is there any clue as to what African American voter turnout is like in Atlanta – and what’s going on with the madmen? Georgia Race in the Senate?

Georgia is one of the “safe” republican states where polls show that Biden has made progress. So the results there could indicate whether this was all a democratic fantasy. But while the Georgia polls close at 7 p.m., don’t expect immediate results, nor do you expect Trump to necessarily stick to early leadership, as Atlanta and its Democrats often report last.

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7.30 pm ET (4.30 pm PT, 12.30 pm GMT, 11.30 am AEDT)

There is no turning back now. When trying to keep your eye on Florida, prepare for a range of returns North Carolinawho also counts his early ballots quickly and tends to report them first. Be warned: many Democrats in North Carolina, as elsewhere, voted early, and what might look like early leadership to Biden in the state could deflate like a cheap beach ball. North Carolina is a place where Democrats could get really greedy and want not just an angry presidential race victory but an upside down Senate seat, with Democrat Cal Cunningham facing Republican incumbent Thom Tillis. Or Trump simply repeats his 2016 victory here and wears Tillis on his coattails, which leads to a barely perceptible upsurge in grins on McConnell’s face in Kentucky.

Likewise: Ohio. Wistful Democrats remember when that state was at the fore in presidential elections, and by 2020 some of those old sparks started to glow again. A loss of Trump here would be a total disaster for him. However, don’t expect an easy early result. A Biden lead in early voting – Ohio has weeks to process early ballots and is expected to report them promptly – could succumb to a Trump surge, and then anyone could stare at Cleveland, its slow-reported votes could make the race look tighter and tighter. This is the drama you came for, enjoy.

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20 o’clock ET (17 o’clock PT, 1 o’clock GMT, 12 o’clock AEDT)

Find an armrest and reach for it. A lot is actually going to happen now, and some of the historic contours of the race will come into view. The challenge will be to recognize them.

And new results will come. Two states Michigan and Texaswill close some polling stations, the rest close at 9 p.m. If Biden looks closely in Texas – [did we just type that?] – Hello, story. Also, watch the Michigan Senate race where Democratic incumbent Gary Peters could get into trouble. Speaking of the Senate, does endangered Democrat Doug Jones stand a chance of holding his seat? Alabama? And will incumbent Republican Susan Collins finally lose? Maine? A Collins loss would propel the Democrats towards their Senate majority dream and could even erase that grin in Kentucky.

And then there is something else Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania closes its polls at 8 p.m. The election result in Pennsylvania will not be known at 8 p.m. In fact, it is very likely that the election result in Pennsylvania will not be known for days. That’s because Philadelphia, the state’s largest city, could take days to count their postal ballots with Democrats popping out of their ears, officials said.

The slow count in Pennsylvania is key to one of the most plausible and alarming scenarios for an election night collapse, with Trump exploiting a “red mirage” of the state to declare victory in an election that Biden later announced won. Here’s an interactive explanation of how all of this could play out.

Keep your eyes on Pennsylvania, but don’t hold your breath.

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21 o’clock ET (18 o’clock PT, 2 o’clock GMT, 13 o’clock AEDT)

If you haven’t gotten a psychoactive kick from election night by this point, the power of democracy is likely to kick in by this next hour.

We’ll look backwards, to Florida, to North Carolina, to Georgia, to Ohio. But then we’ll turn around and wham – ArizonaAccustomed to early voting and counting its votes quickly will hit us with some results. Note that in the past, the Arizona early result looked more Republican than the final result. The Democrats expect the Senate to pick up candidate Mark Kelly, who actually rode rockets into space.

(Enjoy for a moment the fact that Arizona is freaking Biden and Trump is holding Pennsylvania. This is one of the easiest ways the race could end in a campaign of 269-269.)

Then switch channels to Coloradowhere we can expect an early result. Here, too, the Democrats rely on the Senate to pick them up. in the New-MexikoCan Trump hold it closer than the eight points he left Hillary Clinton behind in 2016? And zero on Omaha, Nebraskawhere Biden is hoping to get an electoral college vote in a really red state.

Finally there Wisconsin. Democracy in Wisconsin is pretty broken, with endless voting lines and shameful Republican actions to prevent Democratic and minority voters from voting. Look for an early strong Republican side result from the well-heeled suburbs of Milwaukee, where voting actually works. The city of Milwaukee will take longer.

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22 o’clock ET (19 o’clock PT, 3 o’clock GMT, 14 o’clock AEDT)

We have no idea what kind of action will be taking place in the rearview mirror at this point – maybe we can already sense a winner? – but the coming states are clearly visible: Utahwhere Trump’s margin will be of interest; Nevadawhere it looks like Biden may have a surprisingly difficult race on his hands; and Iowa.

The Iowa results should be handled with forceps. As in Ohio, it used to be in the game for Democrats, and some wonder if it might not return to the blue fold in 2020. Such an outcome would spell a disastrous night for Trump, and it could well be a fantasy.

What doesn’t seem like a total fantasy, however, comes as a surprise to incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa, whose loss would greatly boost Senate Democratic drafts. But be warned: Ernst got early results in Iowa in 2014 just to come from behind and win. So don’t make plans to go to bed by 11 p.m. ET knowing who won in Iowa. That would be crazy!

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23 o’clock ET (20 o’clock PT, 4 o’clock GMT, 15 o’clock AEDT)

The polls close west – in California, Oregon and Washington (and Hawaii). If the president’s race is not over, the completion of the polls in those states will result in a final call for the race.

It is not realistic to hope that the Annus horribilis 2020 will end with a clean result in the presidential race on the night of the elections … and yet.

Consider the following: In 2008, right on time at 11pm, Fox News called the presidential race for Barack Obama. In 2012, the Associated Press declared Obama the winner at 11:38 p.m. ET. Even in 2016, when the Trump-Clinton race was too short to be called on election night, the Associated Press called for Trump on Wednesday at 2:29 p.m. ET.

The writing could be on the wall at this point. Or something unusually mixed up has happened. Or the whole election story is about Philadelphia like a drowning insect circling a drain.

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1 o’clock ET (22 o’clock PT, 6 o’clock GMT, 17 o’clock AEDT)

At this late hour on the east coast, if you’re still awake, it’s probably not because you’re wondering how the elections came about Alaska. (Or are you waking up in London? If you actually live in Alaska, please let us know what’s going on there.)

By this time, wherever you live, the night has revealed some great secrets and you are now wondering what it could mean for the country, your family, yourself, and tomorrow. Good night and good luck.

• • Continue reading: What if there is no election result on November 3rd? Experts explain what’s next