Will America survive this time?

Will America survive this time?
Will America survive this time?
If someone chose, several years ago, the title of an article about the US elections, such as: “Elections That May Break America,” he would be described as an extremist, a hatred of America, and a conspiracy theorist, or perhaps worse. But this is the title of an article in “The Atlantic” – America’s most ancient and sober magazine – by Barton Gilman (it was published online last September and will be published in print in the November issue). The author delves deeply, over a period of 32 pages, into studying all possibilities that may emerge from the November 3 elections, and focuses on the tactics of the administration of Donald and his Republican party, which began to take their various forms since before his election in 2016, through the midterm elections in 2015. 2018 and the subsequent legal challenges and lawsuits, leading to Trump’s desperation to nominate Amy Connie Barrett and appoint her to the Supreme Court days before the fall of his administration. Tactics that clearly demonstrate Trump’s strategy aimed at questioning the legitimacy of an election in which polls indicate his loss, and his bet on resorting to Congress or the Supreme Court to tip his victory at any cost.In “The Vibration of Elite Democracy” four years ago, we reviewed some of the signs of rust that began to appear on the American democracy machine, including the loss of confidence of the American voter in the transparency of the electoral process, his despair in bringing those who resemble him and understand his concerns to power, and his frustration with a single choice: “Either elect the bad.” Or worse, ”and thus his reluctance to participate, which happened when everyone was surprised by Trump’s election as president, with less than half of the voters, or nearly a quarter of those eligible to vote. Is the crisis in the frustrated voter?
It may be useful to point out that the leaders of the American Revolution (1775 – 1783) against the British authorities in protest at the imposition of more taxes on the inhabitants of the American colonies to finance their wars against France, including the founding fathers who declared the Declaration of Independence (July 4, 1776) and after that they With the preparation of the country’s new constitution (1787), they were all motivated by incentives to protect their own interests, such as not paying taxes on the products of their vast farms, and the freedom to trade with whomever they wanted and not only with the British Crown, that is, not what is being taught in schools that the revolution was for ‘freedom Life and the pursuit of happiness … for all men who were born equal. ‘ Those of these men who were eligible to enjoy such rights (including the right to vote) did not exceed the days of George Washington’s presidency of 6% of the population; Because the definition of “man” applied only to the free white man and owner of large areas of land. The founders feared that the majority of the population would prevail over their material interests, and so they put obstacles in front of real popular representation, including not relying on the votes of the majority of voters to choose the president of America, but rather the “ballot college” was invented with its 538 members (a number equal to members of both houses of Congress + DC district) In order to elect the president, the selection of its members has been entrusted to officials of the various states. This “polling college” has granted the presidency to the loser in the elections five times in American history, the last of which was granted by Trump to the presidency despite Hillary Clinton’s superiority over him by nearly three million votes.
However, the state’s accelerated geographic expansion in the nineteenth century, its gaining enormous economic power, with the influx of millions of new immigrants, and the gradual acquisition of voting rights by groups of citizens (women 1920) and Africans (1965), all factors allowed “some diligent thinkers to democratize the republic. Shy in self-awareness ». Likewise, I allowed the average citizen to overlook the bias of the existing system in favor of the elite, so that the voter base to judge his individual interest is based on a simple equation: “As long as the opportunity for me to obtain material gains exceeds what my father got, and my son’s chance exceeds what I got, things are Acceptable, “meaning the saying that” the American voter votes from his pocket. ” However, this equation, which has borne fruit for more than two centuries, is starting to fade. Today, “millennials” find themselves forced to turn to their parents to help find their independent path, or to return to their parents’ home to live where they have no ability to be independent in their financial affairs, given the changing nature of the American economy, and the absence of material surplus in light of the widening gap in the distribution of wealth. . This is the American voter today, discovering that this system does not represent his interests (if it were so, then every American would have a university education for free, and free medicine would be available to everyone, and if there were strict restrictions on the unlimited flow of money to electoral campaigns, and the restrictions would be more stringent on the freedom of pregnancy. Individual weapons; all of these have the support of the majority of the American people, and even most foreign wars would not have been waged (the American people opposed the invasion of Iraq by more than 70%).

Formal change by way of alternation in power is no longer a viable solution

So, elite democracy is in crisis today, and formal change by alternating government between Democrats and Republicans every four or eight years is no longer a viable solution to its crisis. During the past few rounds, American youth have sought with all their determination for change to nominate faces that represent them, such as Bernie Sanders, who nearly won the Democratic Party nomination (2016) had it not been for the conspiracy of the party machine supported by billionaires who favored Hillary over him, and the youth seeking change left it vulnerable. Despair and frustration at the lack of candidates to represent his ambitions. “But the United States is a long-established, institutional country, and it has gone through difficult electoral circumstances before, and it was able to overcome them. Why are so pessimistic articles like: Will this election break America? “Was it not able to overcome the effects of the 2000 election crisis, which witnessed the appeals and lawsuits it witnessed against the backdrop of the corrupt Florida polls?” Four main factors distinguish the 2020 elections, and each of them can cast doubt on any electoral cycle, so how if all of them were to meet in this cycle?
1- The complexities of the voting process:
Unlike most direct popular democracies, the American voter casts his vote (November 3), not to elect a president, but to elect voters who represent his state in the official election process (December 14). These 538 voters are chosen from state officials. The fifty, who in turn are subject to multiple influences, including the will of their constituents, their party leaders, and their personal interests. Although the custom says that they must reflect the will of state voters, this is not guaranteed by law. In this tense cycle, you cannot rely on past norms and practices.
2- The atmosphere of violence prevailing in the street:
This year, many American cities witnessed waves of armed violence, which led to the killing and wounding of many citizens at the hands of the police or unknown elements, which in turn caused the emergence of organized and armed groups, some of which were motivated by the protection of oneself from the police, and others were made up of known racist militias. And the third of them is anarchist, and arms sales, including bazookas and other weapons such as anti-armor, have increased significantly compared to previous years. One of the white racist groups that defined itself as “proud boys” and that it seeks to protect public property from the demonstrations of “black lives matter”, Trump spoke to in one of his speeches, saying: “Take a step back and keep your readiness.” He also called, along with other Republican leaders, to volunteer fifty thousand to “protect the ballot boxes”, and to ensure the “legality of some voters”, with an explicit reference, and even a call to bullying against minority voters. Who will control the tempo of all these “volunteers” or armed?
3- The “Covid-19” epidemic:
The 2020 session is the first elections to take place in conditions of a global pandemic that requires quarantine and distancing, and mail and early voting are encouraged. The percentage of voters in favor of Biden by mail is estimated at 36% of all his supporters, meaning that his lead by 10-12% over Trump (according to the latest polls) may turn into a loss if these votes are canceled, for example. There are several scenarios that may lead to such cancellation, including the long period allowed for the counting, sorting, and fixation of these sounds.
4- Trump’s narcissistic personality:
There is almost unanimity that Trump suffers from the “troubled narcissistic personality” syndrome, which does not accept defeat under any circumstances, and there is sufficient evidence of his affliction with this disease over the past four years of his rule. He is the one who declared that polling via mail is “the biggest fraud in history”, as if he is preparing to deny his defeat if it took place, and to blame the electoral fraud. He also urges his supporters not to vote by mail, but rather in attendance, and on polling day, which raises doubts about some attempt to cancel postal votes. Justified suspicions; Last June, Trump appointed one of his campaign financiers, Louis de Joy, in a dubious fashion, as director of the US Postal Service, which will oversee the election count. One of the first steps of the new director was to reduce the number of employees (in the name of fighting corruption), to make changes in the ranks of the top management, to change the operational routine, to close 10% of the counting centers, to withdraw the allocation of the first class from postal ballot cards, and other measures that can only be explained By trying to slow down or delay the count in a suitable time, cancel numbers of votes, delay the announcement of election results, etc. This would add a kind of challenge to the eligibility of such voices (there are reports of plans to publish fake video clips of the theft of boxes or burning some of them and fabricating clashes near or in post centers … etc.). Therefore, all Trump has to succeed in, especially if the results are close, is to raise the level of suspicion in the postal votes, in order for him to resort to Congress or the Supreme Court (in which he has just secured a majority of 6 out of 9 out of 9) to decide on the election results in his favor.
All these factors and others may combine to make November 3 the gateway to a “perfect storm”, where America sails to its heart without knowing its results, says Lawrence Douglas, an academic who specializes in the US elections and author of “Will he leave?”


Trump and the Possibility of the “Deal”

Among these pessimistic scenarios emerges an optimistic scenario expressed by Joe Lockhart in an article in “CNN” (October 21), in which he does not expect Trump to burn himself by his categorical refusal to relinquish power, but rather to persuade himself – based on The same narcissistic characteristic that he suffers from – after dragging the country and the world to the brink of the abyss, that he would gain if he could obtain a deal of the type: freedom in exchange for peace, that is, his willingness to relinquish power in exchange for his pledges to drop all lawsuits against him and the issuance of a comprehensive presidential pardon. , With pledges from major banks (which fear the great losses they may incur as a result of not handing over power) that they will not pursue his bad loans and that they will provide him with more loans. Thus, he can claim “victory”, in order to go about a comfortable life, and to fulfill his dream of owning a media station bearing his name. It is a dream whose higher self has always enlarged.

* Palestinian translator

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