US Presidential Election – Dataguru:

Democrat Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in the polls ahead of the November 3 presidential election – just as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

As is well known, the polls did not beat that year – and Professor Bela Stantic thinks they will not do so this year either.

In an analysis by the computer guru and statistics expert based on social media and engagement, he states to Sky News Australia that Trump will reach 270 voters who give four new years in power.

– It is obvious that Biden will get the most votes nationally, but Trump is doing very well in the tipping states. Florida is completely open, but I keep him as a narrow favorite. The same goes for Minnesota and Pennsylvania. “Texas will win easily,” Stantic told Sky News Australia last month.

– Strengthened Trump

This week, he gave an update after the latest presidential debate and Trump’s corona disease. He thus took a deep dive in the rocking state of Florida.

– The picture has not changed since last month, but Trump has actually strengthened in Florida. There is reason to believe that this is a trend that also applies to other states, Stantic says in a recent interview and says he is more certain of Trump’s victory in Florida than he was last month.

– I also see no negative corona effect for Trump.

Stantic has attracted attention in several elections in recent years. He says he has no clue about politics, but he heads a department at the prestigious Griffith University in Australia that has developed algorithms to analyze social media and moods in the people.

In the 2016 election, Stantic hit 49 of 50 states and he also announced that the British would vote for Brexit. Both times he said the exact opposite of the measurements – and was right.

Millions of Twitter messages

Last year, he also predicted the shock election in Australia when Scott Morrison won. He waited to reveal the analysis until the afternoon of election day because he did not want to influence the election.

– It is frightening how precisely one can predict elections by analyzing social media, Stantic stated afterwards after hitting all constituencies.

In an article on the university’s website, Stantic explains that he analyzes millions of Twitter messages, interactions and dissemination. They are then fed into the algorithm and ground through supercomputers.

Stantic believes he to a far better degree than the pollsters manage to capture what voters actually think.

– Twitter is public, dynamic and has a lot of content, so it works well as a basis for analyzing outcomes, says Stantic, who also says the algorithms can be used on other social media.

Should Stantic get it right again, it will be another earthquake for the pollsters, who received strong opposition after they did not see the Trump victory in 2016 or Brexit.

Enormous Biden management

Biden’s lead in the polls is massive. Opinion poll guru Nate Silver gives Biden a 9.2 percentage point lead today.

Biden also leads comfortably in almost all tipping states and if the opinion polls go in, it will be a landslide for Biden.

The swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona will probably be decisive for this year’s election results – here Biden is ahead with 49.3 percent on average against 45.5 for Trump.

Trump is also very unpopular according to opinion polls. 53.6 percent think he does a bad job as president, while 42.6 percent think he does a good job, according to a weighted average of the latest polls.

The election is on November 3, but the polls are now open in the United States. Donald Trump voted yesterday in Florida, he moved to the state from his hometown of New York last year.