Just hours before the last presidential debate, the distance between Joe Biden (77) and Donald Trump (74) continues to diminish. Biden’s lead has now shrunk to 6.6 percentage points,
With a lead of 6, the race is starting to get uncomfortably exciting for Biden. The US electoral system is screwed together so that Biden can lose the battle for the White House, even if he should win by 4.5 percentage points of the vote.
– All the polls in our average have been published this week, emphasizes TV 2’s election analyst Terje Sørensen. Thus, the figures give a fresh picture of the position 12 days before election day.
– The local polls are even a notch weaker for Biden and hardly support a national leadership in the 6s, Sørensen adds.
The tilting states
As is well known, the American election is about gathering 270 voters or more. Today, Donald Trump walks past Joe Biden in North Carolina and steals 15 new voters.
Thus, Trump has won back all the states in what we call the “second line of defense” after the election four years ago. He now needs 50 voters to win.
The 50 voters Trump is missing, he must pick in the “first line of defense”, the states he won by the narrowest margin in 2016. It is still a long way off, but in Arizona, TV 2’s numbers now give Trump a realistic chance. Here, Biden’s leadership is almost completely wiped out.
The other states in the “first line of defense” are Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. All indications are that the final battle will be here.
– No matter how you calculate, Trump must have at least three of the states on the list. Without Florida, he must have four. Statistically, it therefore takes a lot, says Sørensen.
Differences between the average measurements
In the United States, the distance between the two most cited average measurements is beginning to become large. Realclearpolitics.com gave Biden a lead of 7.5 points on Thursday morning while the distance was 9.9 at FiveThirtyEight.com. The editor-in-chief places greater emphasis on what he calls “high-quality measurements” and last night he accused the competitor of using
in their cuts.
A bit of mean-reversion here. Quinnipiac had Biden up 13 in Pennsylvania in their previous poll, but Trump ahead by 5 in Texas. These are closer to where Q polls have usually been this year, i.e. maybe 2 points better for Biden than the averages in those states. https://t.co/oFND4CNaLH— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 21, 2020
– There will always be differences between the models, says Terje Sørensen. Right now, our average is fresher and that makes a lot of the difference, he says.
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