“Deterioration … continues”
“The worsening situation in Western Europe continues.
with missile cases and hospitalizations and deaths in theirs
Wake, “said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note.” Governments are responding with new restrictions, some national and
some region specific, but so far we see no evidence that these changes are
Slowing down the rate of increase in new cases no matter the numbers bring
Low.”
Regarding the US, Shepherdson said the current third wave of falls “will soon overtake the second as the rapid surge continues across much of the country”.
The US data “has gotten uglier in the past few days,” said Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont, pointing to rising new daily cases, rising positivity rates, rising death tolls and an increase in hospital stays.
According to Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global, the “severity” of new cases is positive [in the US] measured in terms of hospital stays is lower: the first wave peaked in March / April at 58,926 hospital stays; The second wave peaked at 59,660 in June / July; About 37,000 people are currently living in US hospitals because of the virus.
Republicans against Trump?
In addition, investors continue to position themselves for the upcoming US presidential election. Poll data continues to point to Biden’s victory over Trump, though there appears to be some aggravation in some races with less than two weeks through November 3.
AGF’s Greg Valliere, a clear sign of a loss of confidence in Trump, said Republicans, especially Mitch McConnell, would “save” the president. “A McConnell-Trump feud is now public, as the Senate majority leader bluntly stated … that a pandemic relief bill should not be passed before the election; most of his troops want nothing to do with a move that could cost over $ 2 trillion. ”
The national average of RealClearPolitics currently gives Biden an advantage of +7.9: 50.7 compared to 42.8; with Biden’s battlefield advantage at 4.1. Both are a bit narrower than in the last few days.
In its most recent update, FiveThirtyEight won Biden 87 out of 100 results, up from 88 yesterday.
A Gallup poll from September 30 through October 15 found that 43% of Americans approve of Trump’s work as president and 55% disapprove. This is the average for his recently completed 15th quarter in office from mid-July to mid-October. The president’s ratings earlier this year included multiple readings of 49%, the highest of his tenure to date.
The latest poll found 90 percentage points between Republican (94%) and Democratic (4%) ratings of the president, the previous high for Trump and every president since Gallup began compiling this data in 1953 Exceeded point.
“It seems now is the time for many Republicans to plan a life after Trump,” writes OANDA’s Edward Moya. “As the president’s race intensifies, early voting signs suggest the deficit is too big for the president to make a comeback.
“The chances also seem easy to speak that the Republicans will lose the Senate and they have to decide whether the commitment to a stimulus agreement alienates their base,” Moya also said. “Republicans could focus on what gives them the best chance of retaking the Senate in 2022.”
Today’s agenda
No local data
Overseas Data: Eurozone Consumer Confidence October; US benchmark index and inventory sales for September, Kansas City Fed index for October
Market highlights
ASX futures fell 69 points, or 1.1%, to 6112 near 7 a.m. AEDT
- AUD + 1% to 71.17 US-Cent
- An der Wall Street: Dow -0,4% S.&P 500 -0,2% Nasdaq -0,3%
- In New York: BHP + 0,3% Rio + 1,1% Atlassian -1,9%
- Snap + 28% Pinterest + 9% Twitter + 8,4% Facebook + 4,2%
- In Europa: Stoxx 50 -1,5% FTSE -1,9% CAC -1,5% DAX -1,4%
- Spot gold + 0.9% to US $ 1924.67 / ounce at 1:49 p.m. New York time
- Brent crude -3.6% to $ 41.59 a barrel
- US oil -4.3% to $ 39.90 a barrel
- Iron ore + 0.7% to $ 120.49 per ton
- 2 Year Return: US 0.15% Australia 0.12%
- 5 Year Return: US 0.35% Australia 0.29%
- 10 year return: US 0.82% Australia 0.79% Germany -0.59%
- US prices around 4:47 p.m. New York
From today’s financial report
Ex-Crown Chairman Could Be Bred Before ASIC Charges: In a bombing on Wednesday’s NSW casino investigation hearings, it was revealed that former Crown Resorts CEO Rob Rankin refused to answer the questions answer or appear from England.
Steady rise in financial comfort: Melbourne University survey: The proportion of people who are financially comfortable rose to a 20-week high of 47 percent.
United States
The lack of traction in US stocks overnight hides a solid start to the current reporting season:
Europe
The Brexit Brinkmanship brings the UK and the EU back to the negotiating table: the negotiators will meet daily to try to overcome the impasse leading to an EU summit in mid-November and the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31.
European stocks fell for the third straight year on Wednesday as losses in healthcare and construction stocks countered a surge in encouraging gains from consumer giant Nestle and telecom equipment maker Ericsson.
The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 1.3% and closed at its lowest level in more than two weeks.
The losses were broadly based, with only the basic materials sector green, aided by rising copper prices.
Nestle raised its 2020 sales forecast after a quarterly slap, but stocks fell on early gains.
Swedish company Ericsson rose 9.6% as higher margins and the adoption of 5G in China helped the company beat quarterly core earnings estimates.
Asia
China’s Ant Group won the final nod of the country’s best securities watchdog for registering its offering in Shanghai, the regulator said on Wednesday, clearing the final regulatory hurdle for the $ 35 billion double listing.
Hong Kong stocks finished higher for the fourth straight year on Wednesday as hopes of a new round of US stimulus and strong third quarter results fueled sentiment as China’s economic recovery accelerated.
At the close of trading, the Hang Seng Index rose 184.88 points, or 0.8%, to 24,754.42. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.9% to 10,077.78.
Chinese stocks traded a little lower, hurt by profit-taking on new energy and technology vehicles due to high valuations.
At the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% to 3325.02, reducing the loss earlier in the day. The blue chip CSI300 index fell 0.01%.
In the region, MSCI’s Asian ex-Japan stock index was 0.3% firmer, while Japan’s Nikkei index closed 0.3%.
Currencies
Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, reiterated his forecast on Wednesday that the US economy will shrink about 2.5% this year and grow a strong 3.5% next year. He assumes that the pandemic will affect daily life well into the next year.
“Let’s see what we can do to live with this virus,” Kaplan said in an online event with the Hispanic Chamber of Congress in Houston, adding that wearing masks is a “far better alternative” to mass lockdowns At the beginning of this year.
raw materials
South Australia has 100 percent solar power worldwide: A never-ending boom in rooftop solar systems has driven demand for grid-based power to record lows in several states and contributed to lower prices.
US crude oil exports are expected to falter through the end of 2020 due to weak production and poor economics for foreign buyers of US oil, traders and analysts.
U.S. oil demand has declined about 13% year over year due to the coronavirus pandemic. Exports have become a critical source of income for many oil companies, and the United States consistently exported more than 3 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd). However, U.S. production is not expected to recover to its 2019 high of nearly 13 million bpd, which could hamper exports.
Weekly data shows that exports fell to around 2.1 million bpd this month, their lowest level in more than a year before rising again last week, according to the US Department of Energy. Analysts attribute the decline to slower production and a tighter discount for US oil on the international benchmark Brent.
Gold will average less than $ 2,000 an ounce for the next year, a Reuters poll found, as a record breaking rally slows, although prices are expected to still hit new highs.
Gold hit a high of $ 2,072.50 an ounce in August, up from $ 1,300 in mid-2019, the fastest rally since the aftermath of the financial crisis a decade ago.
The rally was driven by central banks, who responded to the economic slowdown and the new coronavirus by lowering interest rates and pumping money into the markets. This strengthened gold by lowering bond yields and increasing the risk of inflation.
Australian stock market
Australian stocks rose on Wednesday on renewed hopes for a US stimulus package after it was revealed that negotiations between the two sides were “closer to an agreement” in Washington.
The S. & The P / ASX 200 Index closed 7.2 points, or 0.1 percent, higher at 6191.8 after Wall Street saw a positive lead as investors assessed the possibility that US lawmakers could see the presidential election on November 3rd could approve new stimulus spending.
Street talk
CPE Capital buys premium crackers for trading PE funds
NAB life insurance retreat should claim Kiwi-Arm BNZ Life
The construction company Maas has entered the IPO queue and is making real profits
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