US election 2020: how Trump can still win the presidential race

4 hours ago

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Even behind in the polls, has time to win the dispute

Recent polls indicate that Democratic candidate Joe Biden has a significant and stable advantage over Republican Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race, both in national preference and in the polls of decisive states.

Due to the record campaign revenue this year, the Democrat also has a considerable financial advantage in this final stretch.

Election analysts have highlighted an increase in the likelihood that Trump will be defeated. Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight.com blog currently has Biden with an 87% chance of winning, while Decision Desk HQ places him with 83.5%.

But all of this is painfully familiar to Democrats. At a similar time in the campaign, four years ago, Hillary Clinton also appeared with a high probability of winning in the polls. And everyone remembers how it ended.

Could history repeat itself with another Trump victory? For that to happen, we have listed five things that can help the president to be re-elected.

1. Another october surprise

Four years ago, just 11 days before the election, then FBI director James Comey revealed that his agency was reopening an investigation into Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server when she was secretary of state.

For a week, news of this investigation dominated the headlines and gave the Trump campaign a respite from recovery.

With just over two weeks to go until the polls close in 2020, a similar seismic political event may be enough to propel Trump to victory.

So far, at least, this month’s big surprises have been bad news for Trump – like the revelation of his tax returns and his hospitalization with covid-19.

A New York Post article on a mysterious laptop containing an email that could link Joe Biden to his son Hunter’s efforts to lobby for a Ukrainian gas company was announced by some conservatives as a campaign earthquake – but its questionable origin and lack of specificity mean that this is unlikely to influence many voters.

Trump has promised that there is more to come, however, implying that directives of irregularities committed by Biden will emerge while he was vice president of Barack Obama.

Or maybe there is another totally unexpected and shocking new fact that is about to burst.

If we could predict, it would not be a surprise.

2. Searches are wrong

Virtually since Biden secured the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, national polls have given him a constant edge over Trump. Even in the main states where the dispute is most fierce, Biden has shown a consistent leadership and often above the margin of error.

As 2016 proved, however, national leadership is irrelevant and research at the state level may be wrong.

Predicting who will actually turn out to vote is a challenge in every election, and some researchers were wrong last time, underestimating the number of uneducated white voters who went to the polls and voted for Trump.

While The New York Times predicts that Biden’s current margins guarantee it more than in 2016, polls have some new hurdles to overcome in 2020.

Many Americans, for example, plan to vote by mail for the first time. Republicans are already promising that they will aggressively challenge ballots sent through the mail to avoid what they say is the potential for widespread fraud – something Democrats said was actually a voter suppression effort.

If voters fill out their forms incorrectly or do not follow the proper procedure, or if there is a delay or interruption in the delivery of mail, this can lead to the disposal of valid ballots. Unmanned or limited polling stations can also make voting on election day difficult, discouraging Americans who were considered by researchers to be “likely voters”.

3. A turning point in the debate

The dust has settled since the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden more than two weeks ago, and the president is the one who has suffered the most.

Donald Trump e Joe Biden

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Trump and Biden debate again on Thursday

Polls indicate that Trump’s aggressive style has not worked well with suburban women, who are an important group of votes in this campaign. Meanwhile, Biden resisted the attack, easing concerns among voters that he was unprepared due to his advanced age.

Trump missed the opportunity to change those impressions with the electorate when he gave up participating in a second debate – after the debate had changed from face-to-face to virtual. Trump will have one more chance next Thursday, in another debate.

If Trump behaves more calmly and presidentially, and Biden loses control or has some particularly dramatic gaffe, the balance of the race may tip in favor of Trump.

4. Conquest of States-key

Even with polls showing an advantage for Biden, there are enough states where Trump is ahead or within the margin of error and where the electoral college arithmetic could work in his favor.

Even though Trump lost the national popular vote last time, he had a comfortable margin at the Electoral College, where each state gets a number of votes based on its population.

Some of the decisive states that Trump won – like Michigan and Wisconsin – seem to be out of reach this time. But if he manages to win narrow victories in the rest, with more white non-university voters in places like Pennsylvania and Florida, he can reach the 270 electoral votes needed to remain in the White House.

There are even scenarios in which he and Biden get 269 votes each, creating a tie that would be decided in the House of Representatives, where Trump would likely have a majority.

5. Biden’s mess

Biden has conducted a well-disciplined campaign so far.

Whether intentionally or due to the realities imposed by the coronavirus pandemic, a candidate known to be prone to gaffes was able to stay out of the spotlight and avoid situations where his mouth could get him in trouble.

But Biden is now entering the final stretch of the campaign. With more exposure, you increase the risk of saying or doing something that would cost you votes.

Biden’s electoral coalition is a mix of moderate suburban, disaffected Republicans, traditional working-class Democrats, ethnic minorities and liberal believers. There are many different and conflicting interests that could turn into anger against Biden if he gives them any reason.

And there is still the chance that, with the fatigue of the election campaign, Biden will show his age and raise doubts about whether he is up to the task of being president. If you do, the Trump campaign will be ready to attack you.

Biden’s campaign may think that time is on its side, and that the White House will soon be yours. But if they stumble, this is not the first time that this has happened in an election.

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