Bolivians at the polls for the election of fear

On Sunday, Bolivia elects a new president after a year of interim government. The defeated party will then cause street riots, fears Katharina Cerny Escobar, a Swiss citizen who lives in Cochabamba.

This content was published on October 15, 2020 – 4:30 PM

October 15, 2020 – 4:30 PM

“For a year now, we have been receiving one hit after another here,” says Katharina Cerny Escobar, who calls swissinfo.ch by video conference from Cochabamba. It all started with the presidential election last November. Incumbent President Evo Morales declared himself the winner at the time, but then had to resign and flee abroad due to accusations of electoral fraud and lack of support from the military and police.

During the weeks that followed, unrest and economic instability reigned throughout Bolivia. “And just when the country was starting to recover, the coronavirus crisis arrived,” laments Katharina Cerny Escobar.

This health crisis has resulted not only in another economic downturn, a drastic loss of income for a Bolivian company that is not already rolling on gold and a strain on the health system – but also a postponement of the news. presidential elections, initially scheduled for May 3, 2020. They were initially postponed to September 6, but as a peak of the pandemic was expected for September, Acting President Jeanine Áñez finally set the day of the election on October 18.

Selling butter croissants instead of trips

Bernese Katharina Cerny Escobar has lived in Cochabamba for 14 years, where she runs a travel agency with her Bolivian husband Roberto. “It has been closed since March and we have not been able to reopen it until now. All those who, like us, still have savings are running out, ”she says.

But in the meantime, a new industry has been added in an unexpected way. Like many others, the Bernese tried baking recipes with her seven-year-old daughter in her spare time, including butter croissants. “When I gave it to friends, they liked it so much that they told me I should sell it,” she explains.

Impoverishment of the middle class

Election propaganda quickly focused on the pandemic. You could read on the election posters of candidates, both right and left, phrases such as: “we have the best plan for health” or “we have the best plan for the economy”.

Economically, Bolivia has suffered a lot, says the Swiss. A middle class had finally been able to form itself over the past four years, but it is shrinking again like a shambles. “Placing savings in the bank is less common in Bolivia; instead, we invest the money in a business or a house, ”she says. But these investments are usually accompanied by a loan that can no longer be repaid.

More than two candidates

The number of candidates has been reduced over the course of the campaign and there are now only two main ones left. One of them is economist Luis Arce, 57, of the left-wing MAS (Movement Towards Socialism) party. Former President Evo Morales, who lives in exile in Argentina, was also a member of this party. During Morales’ presidency, from 2006 to 2019, Luis Arce was Minister of the Economy.

The other is the center-right politician Carlos Mesa. The 67-year-old historian and journalist had already been president between 2003 and 2005 and he ran against Evo Morales a year ago.

Several other candidates from the center-right have withdrawn their candidacy in recent months in an attempt to consolidate the voices of the conservatives in the person of Carlos Mesa and thus prevent Luis Arce from taking up residence in the presidential palace in La Paz. . One of them is the interim president, Jeanine Áñez, whose mandate as regent will have been de facto simply to organize the next presidential elections. She ran for office in January, before withdrawing her candidacy in September.

Fear of retaliation

Carlos Mesa is mainly supported by the upper middle and urban classes, explains Katharina Cerny Escobar. Notably because this part of the population fears reprisals if the MAS returns to power after a year of transition.

As for the MAS candidate Luis Arce, he is notably supported by many rural inhabitants, mostly indigenous, who had already supported Evo Morales, the country’s first indigenous president. They fear for their part that the repression and discrimination they have endured for centuries will return with Carlos Mesa, explains the Swiss.

But contrary to a widespread belief in Western countries that the indigenous population is united behind Evo Morales, there are differences in Bolivia, and not all indigenous people are automatically MAS voters, Katharina Cerny Escobar puts into perspective.

“Elect the lesser evil”

Electing one candidate to block the road to the other is now not only a political strategy, but also the attitude of the Bolivian population, explains Katharina Cerny Escobar. “In my opinion, neither is really a good candidate; we can therefore at best elect the lesser evil. “

The situation is currently calm in Bolivia. But maybe it is the calm before the storm. In addition to fears and hopes for the long-term consequences, people fear for the moment especially street riots as soon as the election results are announced – coronavirus or not – whether it is after this Sunday or a possible second round ballot. “It is already almost certain that the losers will cause riots and roadblocks,” predicts Katharina Cerny Escobar.