The demand for new aircraft will reach about 39,000 aircraft by 2040 (AFP)
expected companyAirbusIn a report, Saturday, is the demand for the acquisition of new aircraft not affected? COVID-19 epidemicThe European Community is counting on replacing fleets with aircraft that emit less than Carbon Dioxide.
And it said, in its new market forecast on the eve of the opening of the Dubai Air Show, that the demand for new aircraft will reach “about 39,000” new passenger and freight aircraft by 2040.
This estimate is in line with previous forecasts issued by “Airbus”, in September 2019 before the spread of the Corona virus, and stated at the time that the demand for new aircraft would reach 39,210 aircraft over the next two decades.
And “Airbus” is more conservative than its American competitor, “Boeing”, which expects the need for 43,610 new aircraft, and the “Cerium” consulting group specialized in the field of aviation, which expects an order of about 43,315 new aircraft.
Last October, global transport traffic was still at a level less than half of what it was before the outbreak of the epidemic, and it is expected to return to its previous levels between 2023 and 2025, without hampering the development of air transport in the long term.
“Two years of growth were lost during the Covid-19 period, but passenger traffic showed its resilience, with a return to an annual growth level of 3.9%,” Airbus said in its report.
And she considered that “the groups of the middle classes, who are most wary of using aircraft, will increase by about two billion people,” noting that the fastest growth will be in Asia, and China will become the largest domestic market.
Airbus believes that the renewal of existing aircraft will be greater than it was in its previous forecast by about 7%, and it expects to replace 15,250 aircraft.
Modern aircraft consume 15-20% less fuel, and therefore emit less carbon dioxide compared to the previous generation.
Airbus promises aircraft that reduce emissions to protect the environment
This makes a strong case for the aviation sector, which is under pressure to reduce its environmental footprint, and which is committed to achieving net CO2 emissions by 2050.
Three-quarters of the need over the next twenty years will revolve around “small planes.”
“Replacing (existing fleets) is the most important driver of decarbonization today. The world expects more sustainable flights, and this will be possible in the short term with the introduction of the latest aircraft,” said Airbus commercial director Christian Scherer.
According to Airbus, three-quarters of the need over the next 20 years will revolve around “small aircraft”, with 29,700 A220, A320 and Boeing 737 expected to be sold.
The demand for the “medium” category will be about 5,300, including the “A330” or “A321XLR”, which are capable of traveling long distances usually carried out by large aircraft.
As for the large aircraft sector, about 4,000 A350s, Boeing 787s and Boeing 777s will be needed, while the demand for cargo planes will reach 2,440 aircraft.
These needs are prompting aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers, who have been affected by the consequences of the pandemic, to increase the pace of their work.
Airbus, which was manufacturing 40 A320s per month during the pandemic, will raise its manufacturing capacity to 65 planes per month in the summer of 2023, with the number potentially reaching 75 by mid-2025.
“The question (…) is how long we can maintain this level of production, especially since tangible industrial investments and new equipment stand behind it,” Pascal Fabre, aviation expert at Alex Partners, said.
For its part, Boeing, whose 737 MAX aircraft is no longer licensed in the strategic Chinese market, is counting on producing 31 single-aisle aircraft per month at the beginning of 2022.
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