But a magazine “Foreign Policy“She believes that no one has definite or definitive answers about this, indicating that major events do not necessarily lead to major or drastic changes.”
Foreign Policy explained in its report that the best thing policymakers can do is to avoid myths that hinder their thinking and examine alternatives that help them focus on the most important questions, noting that it is useful to structure thinking about politics and its science in a way that allows leaders to learn from mistakes as well as successes.
She indicated that when assessing the effects of the current pandemic, the extent and duration of the economic disruptions that the epidemic may cause should still be not clear, and therefore any estimates of the return of the economic recovery will be complicated by the dependence of economies on our uncertain human effectiveness in controlling the virus.
Learning “fairy tale” from history
The report believes that the lessons of the past may sometimes be useful, but at other times they should not be taken into account because they may be misleading.
There is still a difference as to whether Athena lost the war to Sparta due to the plague that devastated the city, and it cannot be certain whether it was the pandemic that struck Europe in the fourteenth century that led to the end of feudalism after the death of more than a third of the old continent’s population.
About a century ago, the Spanish flu killed about 50 million people, more than twice the victims of the First World War. Nevertheless, political scientists point out that the most prominent changes that the world order witnessed later date back to other historical events such as the rise of the Bolshevik Communist revolution in Russia, and the rise of fascism in Europe.
Epidemics … and the “myth” of major changes
In its report, Foreign Policy called for avoiding the “myth” that epidemics are always historical turning points.
She said people wrongly assume that big events like pandemics must always have big impacts, but the example of the “Spanish flu” denies that.
The report concluded that even if the epidemic had major impacts within the United States, all of these effects would not lead to a geopolitical change, adding: “It is likely that the pandemic will have lasting effects on employment, economic activity, education and social life … and thus this may lead Also, local political reforms with no change in foreign policy at all.
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