Energy Weekly Report: Oil prices are still holding around the $70 level
Oil prices ended the week at relatively similar levels to the previous week. It ended the week lower at $70.59 a barrel. WTI ended the week slightly higher at $68.44 a barrel. The difference between the price of Brent / WTI narrowed slightly to 2.15 per barrel.
Oil prices have shown strong resilience despite fears of a delta-type coronavirus in Asia and despite conflicting and bearish information published in the International Energy Agency’s monthly report.
Despite calls from the White House to increase production, it appears that OPEC+ is still following a policy of extreme caution and has kept its production-cutting strategy in line with market developments while still withholding around 6 million barrels per day. This is a wise and decisive enough action to help preserve the yield achieved by the growth of oil demand amid massive drawdowns in inventories worldwide.
The (STEO) report – the US Energy Information Administration’s short-term outlook – came, indicating a steady growth in oil demand at 5.33 million barrels per day and reducing the forecast for oil demand growth for 2022 to 3.62 million barrels per day instead of 3.72 million barrels per day. The oil forecast of 101.3 million barrels per day in 2022 has been revised and reduced by 100,000 barrels per day.
The US Energy Information Administration expects US crude production to rise by 0.06 million barrels per day to 11.33 million barrels per day in July. June production was revised and increased from 11.21 million barrels per day to 11.27 million barrels per day. The EIA expects average US crude oil production to reach 11.37 million barrels per day in December 2021, down from 11.45 million barrels per day and 12.23 million barrels per day, down from 12.31 million barrels per day in December 2022.
The monthly oil market report issued by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was accompanied by a steady growth in oil demand compared to the previous month’s report. Oil demand is still expected to increase by about 6 million barrels per day to reach an estimated average of 96.6 million barrels per day in 2021. For 2022, global oil demand is still expected to increase by 3.3 million barrels per day on an annual basis without Change from last month’s evaluation. OPEC estimates that global demand for oil will exceed the threshold of 100 million barrels per day in the second half of 2022 and reach an average of 99.9 million barrels per day for the whole of 2022.
OPEC reported that commercial oil stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development decreased by 23 million barrels in June to reach the level of 90.4 million barrels, which is below the average of the last five years and by 25.2 million barrels below the average of 2015-2019.
On the other hand, the growth rate of oil demand, according to the International Energy Agency, fell abruptly due to the exacerbation of the epidemic. Global oil demand growth according to the International Energy Agency has been revised to an average of 5.3 million barrels per day, to reach 96.2 million barrels per day in 2021, and by another 3.2 million barrels per day in 2022.
The International Energy Agency stated that total OECD stocks fell by 50.3 million barrels in June and settled at the level of 131.2 million barrels, which is below the average for the period from 2016-2020 and 66 million barrels below the average for the pre-Covid period from 2015-2019
Despite the positive OECD inventory data acknowledged by the International Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency continues to warn of slowing oil demand after Asia reduced mobility and use of crude oil and refined products amid the outbreak of the delta variable that will negatively impact expectations Growth in oil demand, as expected by the International Energy Agency.
There is a contradiction in the IEA’s monthly report as it was very optimistic a month ago and was urging OPEC + producers to increase production to avoid the risks of a sharp rise in prices
The latest figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on August 10, 2021 showed that long positions on crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) stood at 558,529 contracts, down 30,350 contracts from the previous week (1,000 barrels per contract). ).
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